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Through games of Mar 4, 2015.


Idaho St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:344.5
Current RPI:346
Expected SOS:314
Current SOS:331
Current Record:4-22
Expected Record:5-23
Current Conf Record:3-13
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-14
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:343
Expected OOC SOS:315



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-22340.57.73%
5-23343.442.33%
4-24346.049.93%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14New Mexico (161.4)MWCA79-55L0%0.0
11-16Denver (233.3)SumA54-38L0%0.0
11-21Washington St. (158.0)P12A80-68L0%0.0
11-26Utah Valley (306.3)WACH57-60L0%0.0
12-6Pacific (229.9)WCCH62-68L0%0.0
12-9Grand Canyon (278.1)WACA51-67W100%0.0
12-18South Dakota St. (86.5)SumN75-72L0%0.0
12-19Utah St. (128.4)MWCA69-56L0%0.0
12-20Cal St. Bakersfield (296.5)WACN50-59L0%0.0
12-23Utah Valley (306.3)WACA51-47L0%0.0
1-1Idaho (235.4)BSkyA77-54L0%0.0
1-3Eastern Washington (94.2)BSkyA65-57L0%0.0
1-8Montana St. (322.0)BSkyH70-61W100%0.0
1-10Montana (153.6)BSkyH64-90L0%0.0
1-15Southern Utah (302.8)BSkyA71-67L0%0.0
1-17Northern Arizona (179.3)BSkyA72-69L0%0.0
1-22Sacramento St. (126.8)BSkyH59-62L0%0.0
1-24Portland St. (226.9)BSkyH80-76W100%0.0
1-29Northern Colorado (244.5)BSkyA79-76L0%0.0
1-31North Dakota (305.2)BSkyA80-69L0%0.0
2-7Weber St. (261.3)BSkyH63-70L0%0.0
2-12Northern Arizona (179.3)BSkyH80-66W100%0.0
2-14Southern Utah (302.8)BSkyH67-71L0%0.0
2-19Montana (153.6)BSkyA88-77L0%0.0
2-21Montana St. (322.0)BSkyA67-53L0%0.0
2-28Weber St. (261.3)BSkyA61-57L0%0.0
3-5Eastern Washington (94.2)BSkyH0-020%-8.5
3-7Idaho (235.4)BSkyH0-037%-3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Idaho St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Idaho St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Idaho St.BSky26.3726.4114.5514.55-18.70-18.72
Weber St.BSky4.754.5634.7835.33-1.45-1.34
Montana St.BSky4.704.5119.2319.34-2.89-2.77
IdahoBSky2.834.5041.6741.96-0.47-0.72
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.814.4868.0067.991.011.61
Southern UtahBSky4.654.4125.0026.45-2.33-2.08
MontanaBSky4.594.4154.1755.120.380.45
Northern ArizonaBSky4.594.3553.8555.050.350.44
Utah ValleyWAC4.324.0525.0025.59-2.16-1.98
Sacramento St.BSky2.812.8266.6765.260.940.86
North DakotaBSky2.872.7219.2319.24-1.77-1.67
Portland St.BSky2.692.7152.1750.960.120.05
Northern ColoradoBSky2.842.6844.0045.41-0.34-0.25
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.172.0834.6235.57-0.67-0.60
South Dakota St.Sum2.172.0766.6766.670.720.69
Grand CanyonWAC2.242.0751.8552.130.080.09
Utah St.MWC2.212.0459.2658.640.410.35
New MexicoMWC2.031.8846.4346.94-0.14-0.11
Washington St.P121.961.8540.7439.41-0.36-0.39
DenverSum1.991.8539.2939.29-0.43-0.40
PacificWCC1.921.7930.7730.77-0.74-0.69
SeattleWAC0.400.4248.0047.71-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.390.3548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.390.3564.2965.480.110.11
Boise St.MWC0.320.3275.0075.640.160.16
WyomingMWC0.310.3171.4370.300.130.13
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.320.2923.0823.57-0.17-0.15
UMKCWAC0.320.2939.2940.13-0.07-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.310.2866.6766.670.100.09
Chicago St.WAC0.290.2618.5217.90-0.18-0.17
Colorado St.MWC0.250.2582.7681.940.160.16
Fresno St.MWC0.270.2546.4345.05-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.220.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.220.2380.0079.440.130.13
Western IllinoisSum0.210.2224.0024.00-0.11-0.12
CaliforniaP120.220.2258.6255.600.040.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.2039.2939.29-0.02-0.04
PortlandWCC0.220.2050.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.210.1953.5753.570.020.01
NevadaMWC0.210.1925.9325.08-0.10-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.210.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.210.1851.7253.220.010.01
BYUWCC0.180.1672.4172.410.080.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.180.1655.5655.060.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.170.1671.4371.430.070.07
WashingtonP120.140.1653.5752.290.010.01
UTSACUSA0.180.1544.0045.86-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.150.1346.1544.67-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.140.1393.3393.330.120.11
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.06
IPFWSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
USCP120.140.1236.6736.67-0.04-0.03
UtahP120.100.1277.7878.830.060.07
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1275.8676.590.070.06
Air ForceMWC0.130.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.140.120.000.13-0.14-0.12
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1062.0762.070.030.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1024.1423.74-0.06-0.05
ArizonaP120.110.1089.6689.950.090.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1035.4836.32-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.070.0963.3362.750.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0990.0090.000.080.08
OregonP120.110.0973.3373.330.050.04
ColoradoP120.070.0946.4346.74-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.100.09100.0099.900.100.09
UCLAP120.100.0961.2961.290.020.02
StanfordP120.100.0964.2961.970.030.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0779.3178.180.040.04
DavidsonA100.070.0776.9276.660.040.04
LSUSEC0.080.0770.0068.640.030.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0744.4444.65-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.080.0768.9768.870.030.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0757.6958.370.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0626.9225.63-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.063.574.55-0.07-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0662.9662.960.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0650.0048.800.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0657.1457.140.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0641.3841.54-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0676.0074.340.020.03
SMUAmer0.040.0678.5778.590.020.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0628.5728.70-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0658.6260.320.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0625.9325.33-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.070.0668.9769.160.030.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0653.8556.030.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0642.8642.76-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0650.0050.800.000.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0666.6766.650.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0657.1457.240.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0676.9277.700.040.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0655.1755.170.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0644.4443.51-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0663.3363.010.020.02
XavierBE0.070.0660.0060.260.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.040.0351.7251.720.000.00
StetsonASun0.040.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0357.1456.680.010.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0360.8761.600.010.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.040.0327.5927.59-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0358.6258.810.010.01
High PointBSth0.040.0370.3770.370.010.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0337.9339.05-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0357.1456.730.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0325.0024.21-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.4833.48-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0328.5729.92-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0376.0075.240.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.2222.87-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0375.0075.320.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0359.0960.710.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0337.9338.93-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0327.2727.95-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0344.8343.74-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0351.7252.550.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0337.9338.79-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.037.417.65-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.030.0328.5727.75-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0360.0059.390.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0332.0031.14-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0356.6756.090.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0368.9768.960.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0355.5656.070.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.8669.260.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02