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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Idaho St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:276.7
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:210
Current SOS:153
Current Record:1-6
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:281
Expected OOC SOS:54



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13141.30.03%
15-14150.90.23%
14-15175.40.90%
13-16193.12.11%
12-17214.75.31%
11-18236.19.56%
10-19255.615.21%
9-20274.617.94%
8-21290.918.89%
7-22305.314.72%
6-23317.28.80%
5-24327.14.47%
4-25334.11.47%
3-26339.80.30%
2-27344.80.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11New Mexico (84.5)MWCA81-70L0%0.0
11-16Utah Valley (129.4)WACA82-73L0%0.0
11-19Utah St. (105.4)MWCA85-51L0%0.0
11-22Eastern Kentucky (174.6)OVCN91-82L0%0.0
11-23NJIT (192.6)ASunN67-71L0%0.0
11-25Texas Tech (68.9)B12A91-58L0%0.0
11-29Lamar (290.4)SlndH77-60W100%0.0
12-3Cal St. Northridge (259.9)BWA0-027%-7.2
12-7Wisconsin (29.2)B10A0-01%-29.2
12-18Boise St. (106.2)MWCA0-08%-16.8
12-20BYU (66.1)WCCA0-04%-20.4
12-29Montana (251.5)BSkyA0-024%-8.4
12-31Montana St. (178.9)BSkyA0-019%-10.7
1-7Weber St. (175.7)BSkyH0-034%-5.0
1-12Eastern Washington (219.8)BSkyH0-050%-0.1
1-14Idaho (235.9)BSkyH0-045%-1.4
1-19Northern Colorado (274.9)BSkyA0-036%-4.2
1-21North Dakota (231.9)BSkyA0-025%-8.2
1-27Weber St. (175.7)BSkyA0-018%-11.1
2-2Northern Arizona (330.5)BSkyH0-072%6.9
2-4Southern Utah (331.3)BSkyH0-072%7.1
2-9Portland St. (293.2)BSkyA0-039%-3.4
2-11Sacramento St. (337.5)BSkyA0-056%1.9
2-16North Dakota (231.9)BSkyH0-043%-2.0
2-18Northern Colorado (274.9)BSkyH0-057%2.0
2-23Idaho (235.9)BSkyA0-026%-7.6
2-25Eastern Washington (219.8)BSkyA0-030%-6.3
3-2Montana St. (178.9)BSkyH0-035%-4.5
3-4Montana (251.5)BSkyH0-043%-2.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Idaho St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Idaho St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Idaho St.BSky29.0626.3212.0031.66-22.09-9.65
Weber St.BSky0.004.4120.0053.40-0.000.30
MontanaBSky0.004.2614.2946.12-0.00-0.33
Montana St.BSky0.004.2650.0061.690.000.99
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.004.2566.6750.820.000.07
IdahoBSky0.004.2440.0049.82-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.004.2016.6739.68-0.00-0.87
North DakotaBSky0.004.1933.3352.18-0.000.18
Northern ArizonaBSky0.002.6014.2928.14-0.00-1.14
Southern UtahBSky0.002.600.0023.10-0.00-1.40
Sacramento St.BSky0.002.590.0020.44-0.00-1.53
Portland St.BSky0.002.5925.0039.54-0.00-0.54
Utah St.MWC8.162.0240.0051.84-1.630.07
New MexicoMWC7.141.8866.6757.252.380.27
Boise St.MWC0.001.8850.0057.800.000.29
BYUWCC1.311.8571.4367.770.560.66
Utah ValleyWAC7.141.8550.0057.310.000.27
Texas TechB128.251.7883.3362.575.500.45
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.511.7816.6742.15-0.34-0.28
NJITASun7.741.7533.3348.48-2.58-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC7.651.7533.3344.87-2.55-0.18
LamarSlnd7.141.7275.0045.663.57-0.15
WisconsinB100.001.7275.0072.990.000.79
WyomingMWC0.000.2960.0048.590.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.2957.1448.410.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.2740.0037.44-0.00-0.07
DenverSum0.710.2533.3341.11-0.24-0.04
Washington St.P120.710.2450.0036.820.00-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.000.2483.3361.490.000.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2250.0059.670.000.04
UC RiversideBW0.000.220.0033.43-0.00-0.07
SeattleWAC0.000.2120.0042.63-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2183.3350.740.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.2150.0035.230.00-0.06
UNLVMWC0.000.2171.4349.590.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.2157.1447.220.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1833.3345.60-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.710.1860.0039.610.14-0.04
NevadaMWC0.000.1875.0070.470.000.07
StanfordP120.000.1675.0059.100.000.03
PortlandWCC0.000.1560.0057.170.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.1550.0042.710.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1575.0074.990.000.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1537.5036.24-0.00-0.04
OklahomaB120.000.1583.3351.920.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1450.0061.810.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1325.0024.28-0.00-0.07
North FloridaASun0.000.1314.2931.71-0.00-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1350.0058.600.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1314.2937.52-0.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1316.6730.02-0.00-0.05
UTSACUSA0.710.1328.5728.46-0.31-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.510.1271.4368.100.220.04
Houston BaptistSlnd1.020.120.0038.51-1.02-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.1271.4359.850.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1220.0041.93-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1233.3333.15-0.00-0.04
TexasB120.000.1250.0036.240.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.1042.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1042.8645.30-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0960.0070.140.000.04
UC IrvineBW0.600.0950.0054.690.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0017.30-0.00-0.06
UtahP120.000.0975.0061.040.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.510.0925.0053.29-0.260.01
ArizonaP120.000.0985.7170.990.000.04
Little RockSB0.000.0960.0057.900.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0942.8637.25-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0957.1459.480.000.02
PurdueB101.110.0971.4374.450.470.04
GonzagaWCC0.710.09100.0091.060.710.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0957.1447.320.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0983.3370.360.000.04
PacificWCC0.000.0950.0049.010.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0971.4366.220.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0985.7169.010.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0985.7165.670.000.03
OregonP120.000.0971.4366.730.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0828.5727.50-0.00-0.04
USCP120.000.08100.0075.380.000.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0740.0057.49-0.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0771.4355.750.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0750.0056.260.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0771.4356.050.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0675.0067.660.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0020.01-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0034.01-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0642.8638.05-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.06100.0069.770.000.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.44-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0625.0030.93-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB1.020.0660.0067.410.200.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.510.060.0037.92-0.51-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.710.0616.6732.62-0.48-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.510.0628.5747.72-0.22-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0650.0052.140.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0614.2928.66-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
AuburnSEC1.020.0683.3355.200.680.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0671.4366.530.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.03
RutgersB100.000.0683.3344.770.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.040.000.04
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.710.0328.5723.76-0.31-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0042.420.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.510.0320.0041.31-0.31-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
LafayettePat0.510.0333.3331.87-0.17-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.510.0340.0043.86-0.10-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0316.6733.82-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5056.500.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.13-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.510.0383.3377.170.340.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.510.0342.8634.17-0.07-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.510.0366.6772.440.170.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.510.0385.7162.920.360.01
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0333.3348.71-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.510.0340.0030.80-0.10-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01