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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Idaho St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:256.0
Current RPI:256
Expected SOS:341
Current SOS:341
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-8
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:313
Expected OOC SOS:332



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15256.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Washington St. (212.0)P12A85-67L0%0.0
11-25Denver (188.0)SumA79-69L0%0.0
11-27Utah (8.0)P12A102-72L0%0.0
12-5Lamar (337.0)SlndA82-70L0%0.0
12-8Portland (249.0)WCCA65-66W100%0.0
12-12Utah Valley (272.0)WACH76-100L0%0.0
12-21North Dakota St. (120.0)SumN62-67L0%0.0
12-22Utah St. (151.0)MWCA69-58L0%0.0
12-23UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACN64-76W100%0.0
12-29Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH84-79W100%0.0
1-2Weber St. (108.0)BSkyA77-56L0%0.0
1-7Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyH83-78W100%0.0
1-9North Dakota (218.0)BSkyH76-84L0%0.0
1-14Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyA82-71L0%0.0
1-16Portland St. (282.0)BSkyA70-73W100%0.0
1-23Weber St. (108.0)BSkyH69-68W100%0.0
1-28Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyH87-68W100%0.0
1-30Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyH88-66W100%0.0
2-4North Dakota (218.0)BSkyA76-60L0%0.0
2-6Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyA57-90W100%0.0
2-11Portland St. (282.0)BSkyH88-71W100%0.0
2-13Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyH66-64W100%0.0
2-18Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyA81-68L0%0.0
2-20Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyA71-89W100%0.0
2-25Montana (145.0)BSkyH77-90L0%0.0
2-27Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH76-69W100%0.0
3-3Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyA71-75W100%0.0
3-5Idaho (191.0)BSkyA80-70L0%0.0
3-10North Dakota (218.0)BSkyN49-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Idaho St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Idaho St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Idaho St.BSky26.3926.3951.2051.200.630.63
North DakotaBSky6.026.0242.3142.31-0.93-0.93
Weber St.BSky4.644.6475.8675.862.402.40
Portland St.BSky4.414.4140.7440.74-0.82-0.82
Southern UtahBSky4.334.3315.3815.38-3.00-3.00
Northern ColoradoBSky4.304.3029.6329.63-1.75-1.75
Sacramento St.BSky4.274.2740.7440.74-0.79-0.79
Northern ArizonaBSky4.244.247.697.69-3.59-3.59
MontanaBSky2.852.8560.7160.710.610.61
Montana St.BSky2.802.8044.8344.83-0.29-0.29
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.792.7951.7251.720.100.10
IdahoBSky2.762.7660.0060.000.550.55
Utah ValleyWAC1.991.9930.7730.77-0.77-0.77
North Dakota St.Sum1.991.9956.6756.670.270.27
DenverSum1.961.9650.0050.000.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.941.9419.2319.23-1.19-1.19
Washington St.P121.931.9324.1424.14-1.00-1.00
PortlandWCC1.901.9036.6736.67-0.51-0.51
Utah St.MWC1.871.8746.4346.43-0.13-0.13
UtahP121.841.8475.0075.000.920.92
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.781.7829.6329.63-0.73-0.73
LamarSlnd1.761.7624.0024.00-0.91-0.91
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.300.3072.4172.410.140.14
UC DavisBW0.300.3032.1432.14-0.11-0.11
South Dakota St.Sum0.280.2877.4277.420.150.15
SeattleWAC0.280.2842.8642.86-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.230.2355.1755.170.020.02
ColoradoP120.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.210.2128.5728.57-0.09-0.09
GonzagaWCC0.200.2078.1278.120.110.11
IUPUISum0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.200.2068.7568.750.070.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1979.3179.310.110.11
UC RiversideBW0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.170.1721.4321.43-0.10-0.10
USCP120.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
IPFWSum0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
UMKCWAC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1583.8783.870.100.10
NevadaMWC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.150.1575.7675.760.070.07
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.140.1423.0823.08-0.08-0.08
Arizona St.P120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.130.133.453.45-0.12-0.12
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.1356.0056.000.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
UCLAP120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1129.1729.17-0.05-0.05
CaliforniaP120.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
OregonP120.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
UNLVMWC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
HawaiiBW0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0987.1087.100.070.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0912.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
KansasB120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Kansas St.B120.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0782.1482.140.040.04
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01