Idaho St.

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	263.0
Current RPI:	241
Expected SOS:	217
Current SOS:	158
Current Record:	7-15
Expected Record:	9-19
Current Conf Record:	6-5
Expected Conf Record:	8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.21%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-7
Current OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	315
Expected OOC SOS:	169

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-15	200.4	0.11%
12-16	217.9	2.13%
11-17	235.1	10.72%
10-18	252.3	26.88%
9-19	267.7	34.05%
8-20	281.2	20.74%
7-21	291.9	5.36%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Oklahoma (93.0)	B12	A	78-74	L	0%	0.0
11-14	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	A	63-47	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Loyola Marymount (109.2)	WCC	H	76-79	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Utah St. (132.9)	WAC	H	62-75	L	0%	0.0
11-30	New Mexico (30.5)	MWC	A	65-41	L	0%	0.0
12-3	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	H	76-63	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Boise St. (177.2)	MWC	A	79-55	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Loyola Marymount (109.2)	WCC	A	80-72	L	0%	0.0
12-16	Utah (271.2)	P12	A	71-59	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Wyoming (56.6)	MWC	H	56-80	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Weber St. (85.4)	BSky	A	78-64	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Northern Colorado (250.5)	BSky	A	55-57	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Montana St. (260.8)	BSky	H	69-73	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Montana (99.2)	BSky	H	44-68	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Wyoming (56.6)	MWC	A	73-49	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Sacramento St. (304.4)	BSky	A	67-68	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Portland St. (207.7)	BSky	A	80-68	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Northern Arizona (329.0)	BSky	H	78-62	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Northern Colorado (250.5)	BSky	H	99-94	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Weber St. (85.4)	BSky	H	64-62	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Montana St. (260.8)	BSky	A	86-87	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Montana (99.2)	BSky	A	76-40	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Portland St. (207.7)	BSky	H	0-0		39%	-3.0
2-11	Northern Arizona (329.0)	BSky	A	0-0		56%	1.6
2-18	Pacific (264.2)	BW	A	0-0		24%	-7.7
2-23	Eastern Washington (209.8)	BSky	H	0-0		34%	-4.4
2-25	Sacramento St. (304.4)	BSky	H	0-0		54%	1.2
2-28	Eastern Washington (209.8)	BSky	A	0-0		16%	-10.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Idaho St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Idaho St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Idaho St.	BSky	26.99	26.65	33.67	34.35	-8.81	-8.34
Sacramento St.	BSky	3.23	4.60	31.58	34.08	-1.19	-1.47
Montana	BSky	5.23	4.58	68.42	71.91	1.93	2.01
Portland St.	BSky	3.27	4.58	40.00	43.28	-0.65	-0.62
Northern Arizona	BSky	3.16	4.57	14.29	15.75	-2.26	-3.13
Northern Colorado	BSky	5.26	4.57	33.33	34.01	-1.75	-1.46
Montana St.	BSky	5.20	4.56	44.44	41.02	-0.58	-0.82
Weber St.	BSky	5.25	4.56	83.33	78.94	3.50	2.64
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.94	4.51	40.91	41.94	-0.17	-0.73
Wyoming	MWC	4.82	3.83	73.68	68.46	2.28	1.41
North Dakota	GWC	4.76	3.74	31.25	40.54	-1.79	-0.71
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.60	3.64	55.00	54.44	0.46	0.32
New Mexico	MWC	2.67	2.12	80.95	80.35	1.66	1.28
Boise St.	MWC	2.48	2.01	40.00	38.90	-0.50	-0.45
Utah	P12	2.55	1.95	14.29	11.96	-1.82	-1.49
Utah St.	WAC	2.39	1.89	47.83	51.33	-0.10	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	2.33	1.85	54.55	52.35	0.21	0.09
Pacific	BW	0.05	1.82	35.00	36.08	-0.01	-0.51
Utah Valley	GWC	0.55	0.43	54.55	57.71	0.05	0.07
Colorado St.	MWC	0.44	0.39	66.67	60.84	0.15	0.08
Idaho	WAC	0.32	0.35	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.28	0.33	47.83	47.88	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.47	0.32	75.00	76.02	0.24	0.17
Seattle	ind	0.26	0.32	22.22	32.99	-0.15	-0.11
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.29	65.00	66.71	0.03	0.10
San Francisco	WCC	0.37	0.29	56.52	53.76	0.05	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.27	0.27	27.27	26.96	-0.12	-0.12
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.26	0.00	5.31	-0.06	-0.24
Pepperdine	WCC	0.37	0.26	31.82	33.75	-0.14	-0.09
UC Irvine	BW	0.22	0.26	35.00	35.26	-0.07	-0.08
St. Mary's	WCC	0.22	0.26	90.91	87.78	0.18	0.20
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.21	0.26	42.86	43.52	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	SB	0.38	0.26	70.83	72.24	0.16	0.11
Portland	WCC	0.32	0.26	21.74	21.75	-0.18	-0.14
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.26	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.21	0.25	47.37	42.13	-0.01	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.21	0.25	82.61	81.43	0.14	0.16
San Diego St.	MWC	0.21	0.25	85.71	78.11	0.15	0.14
Texas Christian	MWC	0.21	0.25	57.14	49.57	0.03	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.27	0.23	30.43	31.40	-0.11	-0.08
Washington St.	P12	0.21	0.22	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.20	0.22	28.57	26.31	-0.09	-0.10
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.20	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.21	0.19	33.33	33.82	-0.07	-0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.21	0.19	63.64	63.17	0.06	0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.19	81.82	81.50	0.07	0.12
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.26	0.19	69.57	69.00	0.10	0.07
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.19	69.57	64.49	0.04	0.05
Fresno St.	WAC	0.25	0.19	39.13	44.46	-0.06	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.18	0.17	25.00	28.48	-0.09	-0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.16	0.16	71.43	73.45	0.07	0.08
Nevada	WAC	0.20	0.16	80.95	76.42	0.13	0.08
UCLA	P12	0.15	0.16	54.55	56.78	0.01	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.13	0.14	9.09	12.82	-0.10	-0.11
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.13	0.14	33.33	38.39	-0.04	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.25	0.14	73.91	75.47	0.12	0.07
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.13	0.14	19.05	24.60	-0.08	-0.07
Western Illinois	Sum	0.25	0.14	52.63	48.32	0.01	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.18	0.14	61.90	63.52	0.04	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.23	0.14	24.00	24.86	-0.12	-0.07
UC Riverside	BW	0.11	0.13	42.86	39.66	-0.02	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.23	0.13	78.26	78.42	0.13	0.07
California	P12	0.17	0.13	75.00	74.62	0.08	0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.16	0.13	70.83	66.50	0.07	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.13	66.67	68.55	0.03	0.05
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.16	0.13	19.05	19.39	-0.10	-0.08
South Dakota	Sum	0.11	0.13	26.32	28.82	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado	P12	0.16	0.13	66.67	62.69	0.05	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.20	0.12	77.27	77.70	0.11	0.07
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.18	0.10	34.78	35.19	-0.05	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.16	0.10	45.45	44.27	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.10	76.19	75.98	0.02	0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.10	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.00	0.10	55.56	58.02	0.00	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.09	69.57	68.33	0.02	0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.15	0.09	90.48	87.91	0.13	0.07
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.09	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.07	28.57	25.79	-0.00	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.07	27.78	29.77	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.07	34.78	38.43	-0.03	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.11	0.07	80.00	76.67	0.07	0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.07	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.07	62.50	61.43	0.03	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.07	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.07	47.62	48.48	-0.01	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.07	34.78	37.27	-0.03	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.07	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.07	26.32	29.85	-0.02	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.06	55.00	54.81	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.06	72.73	71.57	0.05	0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.07	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	23.81	33.67	-0.05	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.10	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.00	0.06	65.22	63.55	0.00	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.06	35.00	39.40	-0.03	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.06	25.00	25.08	-0.05	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.06	90.91	83.90	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.06	73.91	68.41	0.05	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.06	91.67	87.92	0.08	0.05
Texas	B12	0.00	0.06	62.50	62.20	0.00	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.06	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.06	30.43	25.84	-0.02	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.28	0.01	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.29	-0.05	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.42	-0.02	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.65	0.02	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.72	0.02	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.18	0.02	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.37	0.02	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.28	0.03	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.45	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	80.77	80.77	0.03	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	14.29	16.80	-0.04	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.03	20.83	23.73	-0.03	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.75	-0.03	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	82.61	80.50	0.03	0.02