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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Idaho St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:340.0
Current RPI:340
Expected SOS:260
Current SOS:260
Current Record:4-26
Expected Record:4-26
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-14
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:331
Expected OOC SOS:201



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-26340.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11New Mexico (86.0)MWCA81-70L0%0.0
11-16Utah Valley (206.0)WACA82-73L0%0.0
11-19Utah St. (181.0)MWCA85-51L0%0.0
11-22Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCN91-82L0%0.0
11-23NJIT (290.0)ASunN67-71L0%0.0
11-25Texas Tech (124.0)B12A91-58L0%0.0
11-29Lamar (232.0)SlndH77-60W100%0.0
12-3Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWA79-76L0%0.0
12-7Wisconsin (35.0)B10A78-44L0%0.0
12-18Boise St. (72.0)MWCA82-59L0%0.0
12-20BYU (65.0)WCCA84-58L0%0.0
12-29Montana (221.0)BSkyA74-62L0%0.0
12-31Montana St. (253.0)BSkyA80-63L0%0.0
1-12Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH85-92L0%0.0
1-14Idaho (209.0)BSkyH62-77L0%0.0
1-19Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyA69-73W100%0.0
1-21North Dakota (144.0)BSkyA89-64L0%0.0
1-25Weber St. (185.0)BSkyH73-85L0%0.0
1-27Weber St. (185.0)BSkyA96-74L0%0.0
2-2Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyH91-90W100%0.0
2-4Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH94-68W100%0.0
2-9Portland St. (268.0)BSkyA74-69L0%0.0
2-11Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyA75-63L0%0.0
2-16North Dakota (144.0)BSkyH61-77L0%0.0
2-18Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyH81-87L0%0.0
2-23Idaho (209.0)BSkyA69-61L0%0.0
2-25Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyA89-77L0%0.0
3-2Montana St. (253.0)BSkyH68-79L0%0.0
3-4Montana (221.0)BSkyH76-95L0%0.0
3-7Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyN76-91L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Idaho St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Idaho St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Idaho St.BSky26.2926.2912.5012.50-19.72-19.72
Weber St.BSky4.384.3853.5753.570.310.31
North DakotaBSky4.214.2165.3865.381.301.30
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.204.2062.0762.071.011.01
IdahoBSky4.194.1951.8551.850.160.16
MontanaBSky4.184.1846.6746.67-0.28-0.28
Sacramento St.BSky4.184.1833.3333.33-1.39-1.39
Montana St.BSky4.154.1542.8642.86-0.59-0.59
Northern ColoradoBSky4.064.0632.0032.00-1.46-1.46
Southern UtahBSky2.632.6313.3313.33-1.93-1.93
Portland St.BSky2.602.6040.7440.74-0.48-0.48
Northern ArizonaBSky2.552.5526.6726.67-1.19-1.19
Utah St.MWC1.941.9441.3841.38-0.34-0.34
New MexicoMWC1.811.8153.3353.330.120.12
Boise St.MWC1.811.8160.7160.710.390.39
BYUWCC1.781.7865.6265.620.560.56
Utah ValleyWAC1.781.7840.7440.74-0.33-0.33
Texas TechB121.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
NJITASun1.691.6928.5728.57-0.73-0.73
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.691.6932.1432.14-0.60-0.60
LamarSlnd1.671.6753.5753.570.120.12
WisconsinB101.671.6772.7372.730.760.76
UC DavisBW0.290.2962.5062.500.070.07
San Jose St.MWC0.280.2842.8642.86-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.270.2753.3353.330.020.02
DenverSum0.260.2653.3353.330.020.02
Washington St.P120.250.2540.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.230.2367.8667.860.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
SeattleWAC0.220.2237.0437.04-0.06-0.06
South DakotaSum0.220.2264.5264.520.060.06
San FranciscoWCC0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
UC RiversideBW0.200.2022.2222.22-0.11-0.11
Fresno St.MWC0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
NevadaMWC0.190.1982.3582.350.130.13
UNLVMWC0.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
San Diego St.MWC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
StanfordP120.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
TexasB120.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
North FloridaASun0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1183.3383.330.080.08
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1136.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
PacificWCC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1129.4129.41-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
ArizonaP120.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
UC IrvineBW0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
UtahP120.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
IowaB100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.080.08
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
IndianaB100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
BucknellPat0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00