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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Idaho St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:287.0
Current RPI:287
Expected SOS:268
Current SOS:268
Current Record:9-18
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-10
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC RPI:268
Expected OOC SOS:148



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-18287.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Arizona St. (44.0)P12A88-60L0%0.0
11-18San Francisco (68.0)WCCA90-93W100%0.0
11-23Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACA71-69L0%0.0
12-10Utah (80.0)P12A74-66L0%0.0
12-14Washington (104.0)P12A85-66L0%0.0
12-20Idaho (238.0)WACN69-65L0%0.0
12-28Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACH57-61L0%0.0
1-2Portland St. (252.0)BSkyH87-76W100%0.0
1-4Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH83-72W100%0.0
1-9North Dakota (197.0)BSkyA66-62L0%0.0
1-11Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyA82-75L0%0.0
1-16Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH60-45W100%0.0
1-20Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA65-59L0%0.0
1-23Montana (183.0)BSkyH54-59L0%0.0
1-25Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH69-64W100%0.0
1-30Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyA84-78L0%0.0
2-1Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyA67-65L0%0.0
2-6Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH73-70W100%0.0
2-8North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH75-80L0%0.0
2-15Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyA65-75W100%0.0
2-17Weber St. (149.0)BSkyH78-75W100%0.0
2-20Montana St. (275.0)BSkyA66-60L0%0.0
2-22Montana (183.0)BSkyA62-61L0%0.0
2-27Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH65-66L0%0.0
3-1Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH80-67W100%0.0
3-6Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyA77-69L0%0.0
3-8Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA78-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Idaho St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Idaho St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Idaho St.BSky26.5526.5532.7132.71-9.18-9.18
North DakotaBSky5.065.0644.8344.83-0.52-0.52
MontanaBSky5.035.0350.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky5.015.0151.8551.850.190.19
Northern ArizonaBSky4.994.9941.3841.38-0.86-0.86
Northern ColoradoBSky4.984.9855.5655.560.550.55
Weber St.BSky4.974.9761.5461.541.151.15
Sacramento St.BSky4.974.9742.3142.31-0.76-0.76
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.884.8844.4444.44-0.54-0.54
Montana St.BSky4.854.8540.7440.74-0.90-0.90
Southern UtahBSky4.854.853.853.85-4.48-4.48
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC3.893.8934.4834.48-1.21-1.21
IdahoWAC2.172.1743.7543.75-0.27-0.27
WashingtonP122.102.1051.6151.610.070.07
UtahP122.002.0062.0762.070.480.48
Arizona St.P121.941.9464.5264.520.560.56
San FranciscoWCC1.921.9265.5265.520.600.60
New Mexico St.WAC0.330.3373.5373.530.150.15
PortlandWCC0.280.2848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.270.2762.0762.070.070.07
SeattleWAC0.270.2739.2939.29-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.270.2746.1546.15-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.260.2627.5927.59-0.12-0.12
UCLAP120.250.2576.4776.470.130.13
UC IrvineBW0.250.2565.6265.620.080.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.250.2545.4545.45-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.240.2488.2488.240.180.18
USCP120.240.2432.2632.26-0.08-0.08
OregonP120.240.2471.8871.880.100.10
Washington St.P120.240.2430.0030.00-0.09-0.09
Chicago St.WAC0.240.2436.6736.67-0.06-0.06
CaliforniaP120.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
UMKCWAC0.200.2034.4834.48-0.06-0.06
BYUWCC0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
UC DavisBW0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
ColoradoP120.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.180.1825.8125.81-0.08-0.08
StanfordP120.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
UNLVMWC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
WyomingMWC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
HawaiiBW0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1087.1087.100.070.07
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
NevadaMWC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01