Idaho St.

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	337.0
Current RPI:	337
Expected SOS:	303
Current SOS:	303
Current Record:	5-24
Expected Record:	5-24
Current Conf Record:	5-15
Expected Conf Record:	5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-14
Current OOC Record:	0-9
Expected OOC Record:	0-9
Expected OOC RPI:	340
Expected OOC SOS:	244

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-24	337.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	56-48	L	0%
11-15	Portland (231.0)	WCC	A	51-48	L	0%
11-21	Utah (161.0)	P12	A	57-46	L	0%
11-23	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	N	45-60	L	0%
11-24	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	N	54-52	L	0%
12-8	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	87-35	L	0%
12-13	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	A	66-53	L	0%
12-20	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	A	63-49	L	0%
12-22	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	A	57-54	L	0%
12-29	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	74-39	L	0%
1-3	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	H	53-66	L	0%
1-5	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	86-63	W	100%
1-12	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	A	53-54	W	100%
1-14	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	H	54-70	L	0%
1-17	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	H	60-59	W	100%
1-19	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	55-60	L	0%
1-24	Montana (66.0)	BSky	A	70-51	L	0%
1-26	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	A	61-59	L	0%
1-31	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	A	78-63	L	0%
2-2	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	A	69-52	L	0%
2-7	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	H	79-81	L	0%
2-11	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	A	56-40	L	0%
2-14	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	H	87-51	W	100%
2-16	Montana (66.0)	BSky	H	54-61	L	0%
2-23	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	69-75	L	0%
2-28	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	A	67-58	L	0%
3-2	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	A	53-52	L	0%
3-7	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	H	73-87	L	0%
3-9	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	H	72-71	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Idaho St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Idaho St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Idaho St.	BSky	26.44	26.44	15.45	15.45	-18.27	-18.27
Weber St.	BSky	4.72	4.72	78.57	78.57	2.70	2.70
Montana	BSky	4.67	4.67	77.78	77.78	2.59	2.59
Northern Colorado	BSky	4.64	4.64	37.04	37.04	-1.20	-1.20
North Dakota	BSky	4.64	4.64	42.86	42.86	-0.66	-0.66
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.61	4.61	30.00	30.00	-1.84	-1.84
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.61	4.61	27.59	27.59	-2.07	-2.07
Southern Utah	BSky	4.60	4.60	29.63	29.63	-1.88	-1.88
Montana St.	BSky	4.60	4.60	38.46	38.46	-1.06	-1.06
Portland St.	BSky	4.56	4.56	20.83	20.83	-2.66	-2.66
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.54	4.54	44.00	44.00	-0.54	-0.54
Oregon	P12	1.98	1.98	75.76	75.76	1.02	1.02
Idaho	WAC	1.95	1.95	35.71	35.71	-0.56	-0.56
Utah	P12	1.95	1.95	40.00	40.00	-0.39	-0.39
Washington St.	P12	1.92	1.92	38.71	38.71	-0.43	-0.43
Portland	WCC	1.88	1.88	27.59	27.59	-0.84	-0.84
Utah St.	WAC	1.84	1.84	65.52	65.52	0.57	0.57
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.84	1.84	37.93	37.93	-0.44	-0.44
Wright St.	Horz	1.81	1.81	61.29	61.29	0.41	0.41
Central Michigan	MAC	1.78	1.78	31.03	31.03	-0.67	-0.67
UC Davis	BW	0.35	0.35	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.30	0.30	28.57	28.57	-0.13	-0.13
Oregon St.	P12	0.29	0.29	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
Brigham Young	WCC	0.28	0.28	64.52	64.52	0.08	0.08
Seattle	WAC	0.23	0.23	24.14	24.14	-0.12	-0.12
Washington	P12	0.21	0.21	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.21	0.21	31.25	31.25	-0.08	-0.08
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.20	0.20	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.20	0.20	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.19	0.19	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
Colorado	P12	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
UC Riverside	BW	0.18	0.18	14.29	14.29	-0.13	-0.13
Denver	WAC	0.18	0.18	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
San Diego	WCC	0.18	0.18	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Texas St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.17	0.17	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.17	0.17	35.71	35.71	-0.05	-0.05
Stanford	P12	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.15	0.15	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.14	0.14	93.75	93.75	0.13	0.13
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	81.25	81.25	0.09	0.09
Southern California	P12	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.13	0.13	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Cal Poly	BW	0.12	0.12	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Long Beach St.	BW	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00