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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Idaho St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:273.3
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:340
Current SOS:343
Current Record:9-11
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:315
Expected OOC SOS:335



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11201.30.19%
16-12218.12.04%
15-13235.69.34%
14-14255.120.91%
13-15273.329.16%
12-16289.023.69%
11-17303.211.26%
10-18316.43.00%
9-19327.20.40%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Washington St. (183.8)P12A85-67L0%0.0
11-25Denver (200.6)SumA79-69L0%0.0
11-27Utah (30.0)P12A102-72L0%0.0
12-5Lamar (336.6)SlndA82-70L0%0.0
12-8Portland (240.6)WCCA65-66W100%0.0
12-12Utah Valley (258.5)WACH76-100L0%0.0
12-21North Dakota St. (114.4)SumN62-67L0%0.0
12-22Utah St. (163.3)MWCA69-58L0%0.0
12-23UT Rio Grande Valley (340.8)WACN64-76W100%0.0
12-29Cal St. Northridge (276.5)BWH84-79W100%0.0
1-2Weber St. (138.2)BSkyA77-56L0%0.0
1-7Northern Colorado (311.6)BSkyH83-78W100%0.0
1-9North Dakota (210.4)BSkyH76-84L0%0.0
1-14Sacramento St. (249.9)BSkyA82-71L0%0.0
1-16Portland St. (281.8)BSkyA70-73W100%0.0
1-23Weber St. (138.2)BSkyH69-68W100%0.0
1-28Southern Utah (334.7)BSkyH87-68W100%0.0
1-30Northern Arizona (322.6)BSkyH88-66W100%0.0
2-4North Dakota (210.4)BSkyA76-60L0%0.0
2-6Northern Colorado (311.6)BSkyA57-90W100%0.0
2-11Portland St. (281.8)BSkyH0-057%2.0
2-13Sacramento St. (249.9)BSkyH0-055%1.4
2-18Northern Arizona (322.6)BSkyA0-065%4.1
2-20Southern Utah (334.7)BSkyA0-068%5.0
2-25Montana (145.2)BSkyH0-037%-3.5
2-27Montana St. (255.9)BSkyH0-060%2.6
3-3Eastern Washington (208.7)BSkyA0-022%-8.2
3-5Idaho (218.7)BSkyA0-027%-6.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Idaho St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Idaho St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Idaho St.BSky26.5826.3748.8148.83-0.63-0.62
Weber St.BSky5.984.6266.6770.761.991.92
Portland St.BSky2.984.4833.3339.03-0.99-0.98
Southern UtahBSky3.054.4215.7915.29-2.09-3.07
Northern ColoradoBSky5.564.3931.5829.03-2.05-1.84
Northern ArizonaBSky2.994.3810.5312.78-2.36-3.26
Sacramento St.BSky2.814.3838.8943.55-0.62-0.57
North DakotaBSky5.554.3841.1845.81-0.98-0.37
Montana St.BSky0.762.8440.9143.83-0.14-0.35
IdahoBSky0.692.8054.5554.310.060.24
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.682.8052.3853.140.030.18
MontanaBSky0.702.8057.8962.280.110.69
Utah ValleyWAC2.922.0830.0032.34-1.17-0.73
North Dakota St.Sum2.812.0561.9060.750.670.44
DenverSum2.862.0452.1750.080.120.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.872.0215.0016.07-2.01-1.37
Washington St.P122.682.0133.3329.55-0.89-0.82
PortlandWCC2.761.9841.6739.84-0.46-0.40
Utah St.MWC2.801.9542.1144.73-0.44-0.21
UtahP122.621.9168.1866.370.950.63
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.571.8530.0029.60-1.03-0.76
LamarSlnd2.561.8226.3226.43-1.21-0.86
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.3366.6767.690.080.12
UC DavisBW0.360.3240.0036.76-0.07-0.09
SeattleWAC0.180.2747.6245.00-0.01-0.03
South DakotaSum0.230.2641.6741.24-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.410.2577.2776.870.220.14
Cal St. FullertonBW0.240.2335.0032.27-0.07-0.08
BYUWCC0.350.2266.6769.510.120.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.2256.5256.320.040.03
ColoradoP120.280.2169.5765.360.110.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.240.2082.6181.140.160.13
Boise St.MWC0.240.2063.6462.530.060.05
San Jose St.MWC0.060.1925.0022.75-0.03-0.11
UC RiversideBW0.350.1945.8341.65-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.220.1940.0039.79-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.170.1978.2676.800.100.10
NevadaMWC0.130.1655.0054.530.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.170.1685.7185.390.120.11
Colorado St.MWC0.230.1652.3850.420.010.00
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1654.5550.100.010.00
PacificWCC0.120.1625.0028.89-0.06-0.07
ArizonaP120.180.1679.1778.350.100.09
Arizona St.P120.180.1654.1751.640.010.01
StanfordP120.170.1650.0046.620.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.110.1665.2261.090.030.03
IPFWSum0.220.1670.8368.570.090.06
USCP120.170.1578.2673.050.100.07
Chicago St.WAC0.120.144.357.73-0.11-0.12
New Mexico St.WAC0.180.1465.2268.620.050.05
UMKCWAC0.120.1428.5732.70-0.05-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.1352.9452.160.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.160.1356.5257.280.020.02
WyomingMWC0.110.1343.4842.49-0.01-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.170.1339.1341.12-0.04-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1327.7829.14-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.170.1256.5253.240.020.01
San DiegoWCC0.160.1231.8229.13-0.06-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.060.1061.9059.630.010.02
UTSACUSA0.120.1013.6413.62-0.09-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1054.1755.070.020.01
UNLVMWC0.130.1050.0055.190.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.180.1035.0034.72-0.05-0.03
KansasB120.120.1081.8277.600.080.05
Air ForceMWC0.110.1045.4538.46-0.01-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.1090.4886.880.050.07
New MexicoMWC0.120.1060.8763.000.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.120.1072.7371.620.060.04
San Diego St.MWC0.180.1072.7372.060.080.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1040.9140.65-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0984.2181.700.000.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.0939.1338.57-0.03-0.02
CaliforniaP120.110.0965.2262.840.030.02
OregonP120.110.0982.6179.220.070.05
Oregon St.P120.110.0961.9056.420.030.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.0930.4331.18-0.06-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.0752.3847.040.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.130.0712.5012.85-0.10-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.0747.6252.07-0.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0750.0049.770.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.130.0760.8758.370.030.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0717.6529.21-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0745.0049.42-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0772.2275.580.030.04
WisconsinB100.130.0760.8755.840.030.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.0730.4332.36-0.05-0.02
ButlerBE0.060.0769.5767.170.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0752.0050.240.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0759.0961.320.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0743.4850.66-0.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0717.3920.66-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.060.0765.2261.430.020.02
Texas St.SB0.120.0738.8938.50-0.03-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.120.0752.1751.940.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.069.0912.25-0.10-0.05
Miami FLACC0.110.0681.8276.750.070.03
Austin PeayOVC0.120.0637.5040.54-0.03-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0630.0034.56-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.130.0650.0051.190.000.00
DrakeMVC0.130.0621.7423.66-0.07-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.0625.0024.35-0.06-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.120.0645.4551.34-0.010.00
Murray St.OVC0.130.0645.4549.70-0.01-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0642.8650.39-0.010.00
UMBCAE0.120.0624.0026.33-0.06-0.03
DukeACC0.120.0675.0071.700.060.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0663.1658.810.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0321.0527.79-0.04-0.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0369.5766.530.020.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0334.7836.50-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0379.1776.080.030.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0327.7834.19-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0318.1821.06-0.04-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0365.2267.160.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0317.6526.67-0.04-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0328.5729.68-0.03-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0313.6415.79-0.04-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0315.0026.98-0.04-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0376.1972.290.030.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0376.1973.410.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0354.1749.230.01-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0339.1337.73-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0342.8639.19-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0360.0057.950.000.01
IllinoisB100.060.0345.8344.12-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0373.9170.050.030.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0319.0525.89-0.04-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0329.1733.14-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0376.1968.210.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0331.5831.99-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5731.26-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0356.5257.000.010.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0359.0958.870.000.01
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.27-0.03-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.640.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3333.02-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.060.0386.9682.610.040.02
SamfordSC0.000.0341.6742.60-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6762.580.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0345.4554.11-0.010.00
TroySB0.000.0323.8126.67-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.30-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.70-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0372.0070.510.020.01
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.840.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0359.0953.170.010.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.360.020.02