Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Penn St.   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 9, 2010.

Penn St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:193.1
Current RPI:193
Expected SOS:74
Current Record:11-19
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:3-15
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.07%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:257


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
15-1944.12%135.90.07%
14-2041.18%151.40.52%
13-2039.39%167.33.14%
12-2037.50%188.017.09%
11-2035.48%195.579.18%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Pennsylvania (300.5)IvyH70-55W100%0.0
11-16Robert Morris (138.8)NECH80-61W100%0.0
11-19NC Wilmington (236.8)CAAN69-80L0%0.0
11-20Tulane (278.6)CUSAN60-63L0%0.0
11-22Davidson (179.5)SCN59-57W100%0.0
11-25Sacred Heart (262.4)NECH87-75W100%0.0
11-30Virginia (140.3)ACCA69-66W100%0.0
12-5Temple (16.7)A10A42-45L0%0.0
12-8MD Baltimore County (332.6)AEH58-42W100%0.0
12-12Virginia Tech (49.9)ACCH64-66L0%0.0
12-19Gardner Webb (318.0)BSthH104-57W100%0.0
12-21American (294.6)PatH76-57W100%0.0
12-29Minnesota (76.6)B10A70-75L0%0.0
1-3Wisconsin (15.5)B10H46-63L0%0.0
1-7Michigan (133.1)B10H55-64L0%0.0
1-12Illinois (77.0)B10A53-54L0%0.0
1-16Iowa (207.0)B10A64-67L0%0.0
1-21Indiana (216.4)B10H61-67L0%0.0
1-24Wisconsin (15.5)B10A71-79L0%0.0
1-27Illinois (77.0)B10H67-77L0%0.0
1-31Purdue (12.8)B10A46-66L0%0.0
2-3Ohio St. (29.6)B10A62-75L0%0.0
2-6Minnesota (76.6)B10H64-66L0%0.0
2-13Michigan St. (26.0)B10H54-65L0%0.0
2-17Northwestern (119.4)B10A81-70W100%0.0
2-20Michigan (133.1)B10A55-51W100%0.0
2-24Ohio St. (29.6)B10H67-75L0%0.0
2-28Northwestern (119.4)B10H79-60W100%0.0
3-4Michigan St. (26.0)B10A65-67L0%0.0
3-6Purdue (12.8)B10H60-64L0%0.0