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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Iowa St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:53.7
Current RPI:45
Expected SOS:38
Current Record:17-7
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:3.50%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:81
Expected OOC SOS:179


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
27-779.41%6.00.02%
26-876.47%11.90.19%
25-875.76%24.40.07%
24-875.00%32.70.15%
25-973.53%15.80.95%
24-972.73%28.41.19%
23-971.88%39.21.61%
24-1070.59%21.52.65%
23-1069.70%33.54.79%
22-1068.75%47.89.55%
23-1167.65%29.14.24%
22-1166.67%42.09.76%
21-1165.62%57.219.53%
22-1264.71%38.33.21%
21-1263.64%51.68.64%
22-1362.86%41.40.05%
20-1262.50%67.919.26%
21-1361.76%48.21.03%
20-1360.61%63.03.38%
21-1460.00%56.70.03%
19-1359.38%79.57.92%
20-1458.82%61.90.18%
19-1457.58%77.90.48%
18-1456.25%92.21.10%
18-1554.55%94.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Lehigh (108.9)PatH86-77W100%0.0
11-15Drake (143.0)MVCA74-65L0%0.0
11-20Western Carolina (257.4)SCH92-60W100%0.0
11-22Northern Colorado (253.4)BSkyH90-82W100%0.0
11-25Providence (160.2)BEN64-54W100%0.0
11-26Rice (180.2)CUSAN63-90W100%0.0
11-30Northern Iowa (66.1)MVCH62-69L0%0.0
12-3Michigan (34.3)B10A76-66L0%0.0
12-6Prairie View A&M (278.7)SWACH84-59W100%0.0
12-9Iowa (149.1)B10H86-76W100%0.0
12-18Central Michigan (271.5)MACH59-52W100%0.0
12-21Lipscomb (209.3)ASunH81-64W100%0.0
12-31Mississippi Valley St. (143.0)SWACH67-65W100%0.0
1-4Texas (59.0)B12H77-71W100%0.0
1-7Texas A&M (166.8)B12A50-74W100%0.0
1-11Missouri (12.8)B12H69-76L0%0.0
1-14Kansas (9.2)B12A82-73L0%0.0
1-18Oklahoma St. (119.2)B12H71-68W100%0.0
1-21Texas Tech (244.3)B12A52-76W100%0.0
1-24Texas (59.0)B12A62-55L0%0.0
1-28Kansas (9.2)B12H72-64W100%0.0
1-31Kansas St. (49.5)B12H72-70W100%0.0
2-4Oklahoma (99.1)B12A70-77W100%0.0
2-7Oklahoma St. (119.2)B12A69-67L0%0.0
2-11Texas A&M (166.8)B12H0-081%9.6
2-13Baylor (9.9)B12A0-022%-8.4
2-18Oklahoma (99.1)B12H0-073%6.6
2-22Texas Tech (244.3)B12H0-095%18.1
2-25Kansas St. (49.5)B12A0-030%-5.8
2-29Missouri (12.8)B12A0-018%-10.2
3-3Baylor (9.9)B12H0-043%-1.9