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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

St. Louis

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:28.8
Current RPI:34
Expected SOS:96
Current Record:17-5
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:39.32%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:44
Expected OOC SOS:190


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
27-584.38%9.96.89%
26-681.25%13.317.27%
25-680.65%25.53.72%
24-680.00%35.33.68%
26-778.79%16.80.32%
25-778.12%18.218.35%
24-777.42%31.87.52%
23-776.67%42.99.03%
25-875.76%21.82.57%
24-875.00%26.37.26%
23-874.19%39.96.17%
22-873.33%52.36.98%
24-972.73%31.51.55%
23-971.88%43.42.42%
22-970.97%57.02.90%
21-970.00%64.51.60%
23-1069.70%38.80.33%
22-1068.75%56.60.49%
21-1067.74%70.60.59%
22-1166.67%43.50.02%
20-1066.67%80.20.24%
21-1165.62%58.00.02%
20-1164.52%66.80.06%
19-1163.33%90.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Louis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tennessee St. (153.6)OVCH71-37W100%0.0
11-15Southern Illinois (229.9)MVCA42-61W100%0.0
11-20Washington (71.3)P12H77-64W100%0.0
11-24Boston College (250.9)ACCN62-51W100%0.0
11-25Villanova (105.3)BEN80-68W100%0.0
11-27Oklahoma (99.1)B12N83-63W100%0.0
11-29Loyola Marymount (110.2)WCCA75-68L0%0.0
12-3Portland (222.9)WCCH73-53W100%0.0
12-7Vermont (155.6)AEH62-43W100%0.0
12-17Alabama St. (302.2)SWACH65-35W100%0.0
12-22Arkansas St. (229.8)SBH70-46W100%0.0
12-27Texas Southern (228.4)SWACH71-39W100%0.0
12-31New Mexico (26.0)MWCA64-60L0%0.0
1-4Dayton (83.7)A10A79-72L0%0.0
1-7George Washington (201.3)A10H78-56W100%0.0
1-11Temple (28.6)A10H67-72L0%0.0
1-14Charlotte (143.4)A10A67-68W100%0.0
1-21Duquesne (86.2)A10H68-41W100%0.0
1-25Xavier (62.4)A10A68-73W100%0.0
1-28Massachusetts (81.2)A10A72-59L0%0.0
2-1St. Bonaventure (99.1)A10H86-62W100%0.0
2-4Dayton (83.7)A10H58-50W100%0.0
2-8Saint Joseph's (56.7)A10A0-061%3.0
2-11La Salle (69.7)A10A0-059%2.4
2-15Richmond (139.3)A10H0-090%13.8
2-18Fordham (248.5)A10H0-099%25.6
2-25Rhode Island (255.0)A10A0-093%16.1
2-28Xavier (62.4)A10H0-081%9.5
3-3Duquesne (86.2)A10A0-071%6.0