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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Long Beach St.

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:33.6
Current RPI:35
Expected SOS:118
Current Record:15-6
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:10-0
Expected Conf Record:18-1
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-0
Probability of Auto Bid:60.47%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:26
Expected OOC SOS:1


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
25-680.65%17.57.87%
24-777.42%22.627.85%
23-776.67%38.42.61%
22-775.86%47.40.32%
23-874.19%30.127.37%
22-873.33%46.38.41%
21-872.41%57.11.24%
22-970.97%39.611.46%
21-970.00%55.17.08%
20-968.97%67.00.83%
21-1067.74%50.22.25%
20-1066.67%66.11.90%
19-1065.52%79.60.32%
20-1164.52%59.60.25%
19-1163.33%76.80.16%
18-1162.07%93.20.05%
19-1261.29%77.00.01%
18-1260.00%89.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Beach St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Idaho (164.8)WACH69-61W100%0.0
11-16Pittsburgh (74.0)BEA76-86W100%0.0
11-19San Diego St. (30.4)MWCA77-73L0%0.0
11-22Boise St. (185.1)MWCH72-62W100%0.0
11-26Montana (96.9)BSkyA73-71L0%0.0
11-28Louisville (24.8)BEA79-66L0%0.0
12-6Kansas (9.2)B12A88-80L0%0.0
12-10North Carolina (5.2)ACCA84-78L0%0.0
12-22Xavier (62.4)A10N58-68W100%0.0
12-23Auburn (159.9)SECN43-64W100%0.0
12-25Kansas St. (49.5)B12N77-60L0%0.0
1-2UC Irvine (259.2)BWA60-74W100%0.0
1-5Cal Poly (182.0)BWH55-50W100%0.0
1-7Cal St. Northridge (307.7)BWA68-81W100%0.0
1-12UC Davis (342.3)BWH86-58W100%0.0
1-14Pacific (263.1)BWH76-66W100%0.0
1-19Cal Poly (182.0)BWA69-78W100%0.0
1-21UC Santa Barbara (137.9)BWA48-71W100%0.0
1-26UC Riverside (257.2)BWA70-77W100%0.0
1-28Cal St. Fullerton (159.2)BWH75-61W100%0.0
2-4Cal St. Northridge (307.7)BWH75-67W100%0.0
2-9Pacific (263.1)BWA0-086%11.6
2-11UC Davis (342.3)BWA0-097%20.8
2-18Creighton (24.5)MVCA0-028%-6.5
2-22UC Santa Barbara (137.9)BWH0-083%10.5
2-25UC Riverside (257.2)BWH0-097%20.8
2-29UC Irvine (259.2)BWH0-095%18.2
3-3Cal St. Fullerton (159.2)BWA0-070%5.8