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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Texas Arlington

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:85.3
Current RPI:119
Expected SOS:282
Current Record:16-5
Expected Record:24-8
Current Conf Record:9-0
Expected Conf Record:17-2
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:42.35%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:18-2
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:110
Expected OOC SOS:194


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
27-584.38%51.93.76%
26-681.25%60.214.04%
25-680.65%85.81.97%
24-680.00%99.50.60%
25-778.12%70.121.60%
24-777.42%94.86.35%
23-776.67%108.81.82%
24-875.00%81.718.42%
23-874.19%104.87.97%
22-873.33%120.12.27%
23-971.88%94.18.25%
22-970.97%115.15.79%
21-970.00%131.41.55%
22-1068.75%106.92.20%
21-1067.74%126.31.93%
20-1066.67%145.00.64%
21-1165.62%121.90.16%
20-1164.52%137.90.37%
19-1163.33%158.60.14%
20-1262.50%132.80.06%
19-1261.29%146.00.06%
18-1260.00%171.20.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Arlington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Louisiana Tech (205.7)WACH68-61W100%0.0
11-22North Texas (198.8)SBH97-64W100%0.0
11-23Baylor (9.9)B12A75-65L0%0.0
11-26Samford (249.0)SCH69-71L0%0.0
11-28Texas Pan American (304.9)GWCH92-60W100%0.0
12-6Texas (59.0)B12A80-62L0%0.0
12-17Tulsa (106.2)CUSAA80-75L0%0.0
12-20Utah St. (129.7)WACA73-69L0%0.0
12-21Kent St. (82.5)MACN74-73W100%0.0
12-22St. Peter's (280.4)MAACN68-73W100%0.0
12-29Texas Pan American (304.9)GWCA56-83W100%0.0
1-4Southeastern Louisiana (326.4)SlndH85-46W100%0.0
1-7Nicholls St. (315.0)SlndH85-55W100%0.0
1-11Sam Houston St. (285.0)SlndH66-40W100%0.0
1-14Lamar (91.1)SlndA82-91W100%0.0
1-18Texas A&M Corpus Chris (316.1)SlndA73-77W100%0.0
1-21Stephen F. Austin (246.7)SlndH63-54W100%0.0
1-24Houston Baptist (311.7)GWCA74-79W100%0.0
1-28Texas St. (317.6)SlndA79-82W100%0.0
2-1Texas San Antonio (159.9)SlndH67-66W100%0.0
2-4Central Arkansas (299.9)SlndA61-69W100%0.0
2-8Sam Houston St. (285.0)SlndA0-083%10.5
2-11Texas St. (317.6)SlndH0-095%17.7
2-15Stephen F. Austin (246.7)SlndA0-067%4.7
2-18Weber St. (78.7)BSkyA0-048%-0.6
2-22McNeese St. (207.5)SlndA0-077%8.0
2-25Northwestern St. (179.3)SlndH0-087%12.4
2-29Texas A&M Corpus Chris (316.1)SlndH0-096%18.8
3-3Texas San Antonio (159.9)SlndA0-051%0.3