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Tweet Through games of Mar 1, 2015.


Utah St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:118.0
Current RPI:137
Expected SOS:162
Current Record:17-10
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:11-5
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:4.86%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:182
Expected OOC SOS:232



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
22-1068.75%62.01.04%
21-1165.62%77.54.53%
20-1164.52%99.28.61%
19-1163.33%117.87.13%
20-1262.50%90.07.45%
19-1261.29%110.120.39%
18-1260.00%133.520.50%
19-1359.38%102.33.70%
18-1358.06%122.211.79%
17-1356.67%149.414.85%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Weber St. (255.3)BSkyH72-61W100%0.0
11-16Illinois St. (76.4)MVCA55-60W100%0.0
11-19Santa Clara (208.9)WCCH60-54W100%0.0
11-22Mississippi St. (212.8)SECA71-63L0%0.0
11-26UC Davis (70.2)BWA77-70L0%0.0
12-2BYU (35.7)WCCH81-91L0%0.0
12-7USC (211.7)P12A89-84L0%0.0
12-13Utah Valley (308.4)WACA47-50W100%0.0
12-18Cal St. Bakersfield (289.2)WACH57-56W100%0.0
12-19Idaho St. (344.2)BSkyH69-56W100%0.0
12-20South Dakota St. (73.0)SumH65-68L0%0.0
12-31San Jose St. (336.3)MWCH61-33W100%0.0
1-3Boise St. (35.9)MWCA61-62W100%0.0
1-7Fresno St. (190.9)MWCA61-52L0%0.0
1-10New Mexico (158.9)MWCH60-66L0%0.0
1-17Air Force (248.8)MWCH71-59W100%0.0
1-20Nevada (297.7)MWCA54-70W100%0.0
1-24UNLV (111.0)MWCA79-77L0%0.0
1-27Wyoming (106.0)MWCH56-44W100%0.0
1-31San Diego St. (27.2)MWCA62-42L0%0.0
2-3Boise St. (35.9)MWCH63-68L0%0.0
2-7New Mexico (158.9)MWCA60-63W100%0.0
2-10Nevada (297.7)MWCH75-62W100%0.0
2-18San Jose St. (336.3)MWCA54-76W100%0.0
2-21Fresno St. (190.9)MWCH85-79W100%0.0
2-24UNLV (111.0)MWCH83-65W100%0.0
2-28Air Force (248.8)MWCA60-74W100%0.0
3-4Wyoming (106.0)MWCA0-042%-2.2
3-7Colorado St. (31.3)MWCH0-046%-1.1