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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Utah St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:128.6
Current RPI:146
Expected SOS:119
Current Record:12-12
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:4-5
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:14.27%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:8-7
Expected OOC Record:9-7
Expected OOC RPI:118
Expected OOC SOS:116


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
21-1263.64%60.50.93%
20-1360.61%74.34.30%
19-1359.38%98.92.44%
18-1358.06%115.42.44%
19-1457.58%90.78.38%
18-1456.25%111.58.00%
17-1454.84%130.08.89%
18-1554.55%106.88.61%
17-1553.12%125.910.19%
16-1551.61%146.413.64%
17-1651.52%121.94.86%
16-1650.00%141.37.48%
16-1748.48%139.41.53%
15-1648.39%163.710.15%
15-1746.88%158.22.42%
15-1845.45%155.50.22%
14-1745.16%180.64.21%
14-1843.75%180.00.33%
14-1942.42%171.00.03%
13-1841.94%195.10.88%
13-1940.62%189.00.01%
12-1938.71%206.60.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Brigham Young (41.2)WCCH69-62W100%0.0
11-15Weber St. (78.6)BSkyA73-63L0%0.0
11-19Southern Utah (232.9)SumH65-62W100%0.0
11-22Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.6)SlndA58-55L0%0.0
11-26Idaho St. (262.4)BSkyA62-75W100%0.0
11-30Denver (81.4)SBH54-67L0%0.0
12-3Pacific (264.4)BWA65-57L0%0.0
12-6Utah Valley (207.4)GWCH63-54W100%0.0
12-10Wichita St. (16.5)MVCA83-76L0%0.0
12-17Seattle (289.4)indH78-53W100%0.0
12-20Texas Arlington (84.9)SlndH73-69W100%0.0
12-21St. Peter's (279.4)MAACH72-47W100%0.0
12-22Kent St. (82.5)MACH81-62W100%0.0
12-31Mississippi St. (48.3)SECA66-64L0%0.0
1-5Fresno St. (181.5)WACH72-53W100%0.0
1-7Nevada (62.2)WACH71-78L0%0.0
1-12New Mexico St. (69.2)WACA80-60L0%0.0
1-14Louisiana Tech (208.0)WACA65-69W100%0.0
1-19Seattle (289.4)indA73-66L0%0.0
1-21Idaho (166.0)WACA57-54L0%0.0
1-26Hawaii (184.8)WACH77-72W100%0.0
1-28San Jose St. (278.9)WACH82-65W100%0.0
2-2Nevada (62.2)WACA53-52L0%0.0
2-4Fresno St. (181.5)WACA60-54L0%0.0
2-9Louisiana Tech (208.0)WACH0-082%10.2
2-11New Mexico St. (69.2)WACH0-049%-0.3
2-18UC Santa Barbara (137.8)BWH0-064%3.8
2-24Idaho (166.0)WACH0-067%4.9
3-1San Jose St. (278.9)WACA0-074%7.0
3-3Hawaii (184.8)WACA0-052%0.5