Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Utah St.   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 6, 2010.

Utah St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:31.5
Current RPI:52
Expected SOS:87
Current Record:17-6
Expected Record:25-8
Current Conf Record:8-2
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:47.50%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC RPI:52
Expected OOC SOS:59


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
27-681.82%18.715.83%
26-778.79%25.426.02%
25-778.12%27.97.86%
24-777.42%32.02.71%
25-875.76%33.217.37%
24-875.00%36.79.27%
23-874.19%42.13.37%
24-972.73%42.06.89%
23-971.88%46.34.89%
22-970.97%51.92.03%
23-1069.70%51.11.52%
22-1068.75%56.41.24%
21-1067.74%61.50.56%
22-1166.67%59.10.14%
21-1165.62%66.80.12%
20-1164.52%73.50.11%
21-1263.64%69.00.03%
20-1262.50%77.50.02%
19-1261.29%81.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Weber St. (77.6)BSkyA66-60W100%0.0
11-18Utah (163.1)MWCA67-68L0%0.0
11-21Northeastern (47.9)CAAA61-64L0%0.0
11-24Idaho St. (276.8)BSkyH77-44W100%0.0
11-28Southern Utah (317.2)SumH89-49W100%0.0
12-2Brigham Young (14.8)MWCH71-61W100%0.0
12-5St. Mary's (38.5)WCCH63-68L0%0.0
12-12Utah Valley (327.9)GWCH87-56W100%0.0
12-16Cal St. Bakersfield (322.2)indA68-51W100%0.0
12-18Long Beach St. (139.6)BWA62-75L0%0.0
12-21Morehead St. (91.8)OVCH79-72W100%0.0
12-22Cal St. Fullerton (210.3)BWH83-60W100%0.0
12-23Weber St. (77.6)BSkyH85-73W100%0.0
1-2New Mexico St. (86.0)WACA52-55L0%0.0
1-4Louisiana Tech (61.7)WACA60-82L0%0.0
1-11Hawaii (236.5)WACH98-54W100%0.0
1-13Nevada (64.6)WACA79-72W100%0.0
1-16Boise St. (213.9)WACH81-59W100%0.0
1-21Fresno St. (160.5)WACA69-43W100%0.0
1-23Idaho (148.3)WACA60-48W100%0.0
1-30San Jose St. (142.7)WACH77-58W100%0.0
2-3Idaho (148.3)WACH80-62W100%0.0
2-6Nevada (64.6)WACH76-65W100%0.0
2-11Boise St. (213.9)WACA0-083%10.4
2-13San Jose St. (142.7)WACA0-080%9.3
2-17Louisiana Tech (61.7)WACH0-084%10.9
2-20Wichita St. (45.9)MVCH0-078%8.4
2-25Hawaii (236.5)WACA0-089%13.5
3-1Fresno St. (160.5)WACH0-092%15.1
3-6New Mexico St. (86.0)WACH0-093%16.4