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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Youngstown St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:158.8
Current RPI:148
Expected SOS:195
Current Record:11-10
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:8-5
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:3.43%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:203
Expected OOC SOS:252


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
21-1067.74%73.00.05%
19-1065.52%82.20.25%
20-1164.52%85.50.48%
19-1163.33%113.30.25%
18-1162.07%107.31.61%
19-1261.29%99.82.53%
17-1160.71%125.61.30%
18-1260.00%124.52.87%
17-1258.62%138.46.08%
18-1358.06%112.43.46%
16-1257.14%145.93.85%
17-1356.67%137.38.05%
16-1355.17%160.512.19%
17-1454.84%124.82.07%
15-1353.57%167.65.19%
16-1453.33%149.89.21%
15-1451.72%177.912.56%
16-1551.61%135.81.06%
15-1550.00%163.84.26%
14-1450.00%186.55.80%
15-1648.39%151.20.36%
14-1548.28%191.46.53%
14-1646.67%177.70.76%
13-1546.43%200.44.99%
14-1745.16%159.80.05%
13-1644.83%200.31.70%
13-1743.33%179.70.10%
12-1642.86%212.81.93%
12-1741.38%210.40.16%
11-1739.29%224.10.29%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Youngstown St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Samford (249.0)SCA69-76W100%0.0
11-18UC Riverside (257.2)BWH53-49W100%0.0
11-23Penn St. (172.5)B10A82-71L0%0.0
11-26St. Francis PA (304.6)NECA59-60W100%0.0
12-1Detroit (180.8)HorzA61-64W100%0.0
12-3Wright St. (220.5)HorzA63-62L0%0.0
12-10Buffalo (65.6)MACA80-72L0%0.0
12-17Toledo (273.3)MACA86-77L0%0.0
12-19Akron (44.8)MACA88-62L0%0.0
12-22Robert Morris (106.1)NECH56-59L0%0.0
12-31Cleveland St. (55.0)HorzA67-73W100%0.0
1-5Loyola Chicago (312.6)HorzH68-64W100%0.0
1-7Illinois Chicago (292.2)HorzH71-50W100%0.0
1-13Valparaiso (105.3)HorzA76-62L0%0.0
1-15Butler (146.3)HorzA71-55L0%0.0
1-20Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.0)HorzH68-66W100%0.0
1-22Wisconsin Green Bay (187.9)HorzH77-47W100%0.0
1-28Cleveland St. (55.0)HorzH47-67L0%0.0
1-31Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.0)HorzA65-73W100%0.0
2-2Illinois Chicago (292.2)HorzA72-68L0%0.0
2-5Loyola Chicago (312.6)HorzA63-80W100%0.0
2-9Butler (146.3)HorzH0-058%2.3
2-11Valparaiso (105.3)HorzH0-055%1.4
2-14Wisconsin Green Bay (187.9)HorzA0-043%-1.9
2-18Austin Peay (197.8)OVCA0-051%0.2
2-23Wright St. (220.5)HorzH0-074%7.0
2-25Detroit (180.8)HorzH0-058%2.1