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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Western Kentucky

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:240.9
Current RPI:245
Expected SOS:144
Current Record:8-15
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:4-6
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.31%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:222
Expected OOC SOS:47


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
16-1748.48%157.20.04%
15-1648.39%177.00.02%
15-1746.88%172.20.06%
14-1646.67%195.00.03%
15-1845.45%171.90.34%
14-1745.16%193.90.30%
14-1843.75%196.30.68%
13-1743.33%206.80.46%
14-1942.42%185.40.46%
13-1841.94%208.72.18%
14-2041.18%182.00.01%
13-1940.62%206.91.28%
12-1840.00%225.63.63%
13-2039.39%196.80.29%
14-2238.89%192.00.03%
12-1938.71%217.28.59%
13-2138.24%208.80.04%
11-1837.93%227.20.36%
12-2037.50%214.60.66%
13-2237.14%207.00.03%
11-1936.67%237.512.32%
12-2136.36%220.80.26%
13-2336.11%210.80.05%
11-2035.48%228.29.70%
12-2235.29%219.40.22%
10-1934.48%242.412.37%
11-2134.38%234.90.23%
12-2334.29%219.50.04%
11-2233.33%237.90.70%
10-2033.33%250.013.61%
11-2332.35%233.20.12%
10-2132.26%242.81.50%
10-2231.25%252.91.44%
9-2031.03%256.618.46%
10-2330.30%251.80.47%
9-2130.00%264.11.78%
9-2229.03%269.41.36%
9-2328.12%265.21.59%
8-2127.59%269.92.58%
8-2226.67%266.00.01%
8-2325.81%278.61.69%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Saint Joseph's (56.7)A10H61-72L0%0.0
11-14Tennessee St. (153.6)OVCH52-49W100%0.0
11-17Tulsa (106.2)CUSAN49-65L0%0.0
11-18Louisiana St. (91.6)SECN76-57L0%0.0
11-20Virginia Commonwealth (69.1)CAAN69-64L0%0.0
11-23Virginia Commonwealth (69.1)CAAH45-68L0%0.0
11-26Southeastern Louisiana (326.4)SlndH72-67W100%0.0
12-1Murray St. (26.6)OVCH59-70L0%0.0
12-4Bowling Green (155.4)MACH60-53W100%0.0
12-7Southern Illinois (229.9)MVCA55-62W100%0.0
12-10IUPUI (246.0)SumA84-76L0%0.0
12-17Furman (232.7)SCH63-76L0%0.0
12-23Louisville (24.8)BEA70-60L0%0.0
12-29Louisiana Monroe (324.7)SBA71-76W100%0.0
12-31Florida International (213.6)SBH63-81L0%0.0
1-5Louisiana Lafayette (158.5)SBH70-72L0%0.0
1-7Troy (271.6)SBH65-67L0%0.0
1-12North Texas (198.8)SBA84-67L0%0.0
1-15Denver (82.1)SBA78-65L0%0.0
1-21Arkansas Little Rock (187.9)SBH65-53W100%0.0
1-26Florida Atlantic (177.8)SBA67-66L0%0.0
1-28Florida International (213.6)SBA51-61W100%0.0
2-4South Alabama (196.9)SBH75-66W100%0.0
2-9Middle Tennessee (40.8)SBA0-05%-18.1
2-11Troy (271.6)SBA0-043%-2.0
2-16Florida Atlantic (177.8)SBH0-046%-1.1
2-18South Alabama (196.9)SBA0-031%-5.3
2-23Arkansas St. (229.8)SBH0-060%2.9
2-25Middle Tennessee (40.8)SBH0-015%-11.5