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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Western Illinois

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:180.2
Current RPI:205
Expected SOS:185
Current Record:10-9
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:3.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:253


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
18-1064.29%80.00.04%
17-1062.96%129.00.01%
16-1061.54%132.00.02%
17-1160.71%100.20.41%
16-1159.26%125.20.46%
15-1157.69%148.80.47%
16-1257.14%112.91.51%
15-1255.56%135.72.60%
14-1253.85%161.73.53%
15-1353.57%126.43.12%
14-1351.85%151.48.45%
14-1450.00%143.53.77%
13-1350.00%178.812.63%
13-1448.15%168.912.32%
13-1546.43%161.61.94%
12-1446.15%196.722.22%
12-1544.44%186.56.69%
12-1642.86%178.80.32%
11-1542.31%214.015.46%
11-1640.74%205.51.19%
10-1638.46%229.62.83%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Dayton (83.7)A10A87-58L0%0.0
11-17Michigan (34.3)B10A59-55L0%0.0
11-26North Dakota (250.8)GWCA62-65W100%0.0
12-1North Dakota St. (121.0)SumH55-51W100%0.0
12-3South Dakota St. (49.5)SumH66-67L0%0.0
12-10Eastern Illinois (295.0)OVCH64-48W100%0.0
12-19Illinois Chicago (292.2)HorzA57-56L0%0.0
12-22North Dakota (250.8)GWCH68-46W100%0.0
12-30IUPUI (246.0)SumA75-68L0%0.0
1-3South Dakota (283.1)SumH67-44W100%0.0
1-5Oakland (140.4)SumA61-71W100%0.0
1-7IUPU Fort Wayne (271.7)SumA65-75W100%0.0
1-12Oral Roberts (40.9)SumH70-71L0%0.0
1-14Southern Utah (234.6)SumH55-65L0%0.0
1-19Missouri Kansas City (244.9)SumA72-50L0%0.0
1-21South Dakota (283.1)SumA45-47W100%0.0
1-28IUPUI (246.0)SumH57-55W100%0.0
2-2IUPU Fort Wayne (271.7)SumH62-52W100%0.0
2-4Oakland (140.4)SumH70-74L0%0.0
2-9Southern Utah (234.6)SumA0-053%0.8
2-11Oral Roberts (40.9)SumA0-014%-11.8
2-15Missouri Kansas City (244.9)SumH0-079%8.8
2-18Evansville (149.4)MVCA0-025%-7.4
2-23South Dakota St. (49.5)SumA0-014%-11.8
2-25North Dakota St. (121.0)SumA0-023%-7.9