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Tweet Through games of Feb 27, 2015.


Western Illinois

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:322.2
Current RPI:328
Expected SOS:226
Current Record:6-18
Expected Record:6-20
Current Conf Record:3-12
Expected Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.26%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:285
Expected OOC SOS:242



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
10-1835.71%252.20.05%
9-1932.14%276.90.38%
8-1929.63%296.00.70%
8-2028.57%296.61.17%
7-1926.92%310.59.85%
7-2025.93%312.95.60%
6-2023.08%325.182.25%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Pacific (234.7)WCCH71-73L0%0.0
11-17Illinois Chicago (313.7)HorzA67-64L0%0.0
11-22Southeastern Louisiana (292.6)SlndH60-57W100%0.0
11-25William & Mary (74.7)CAAA83-49L0%0.0
12-4Akron (129.5)MACA73-49L0%0.0
12-7Cleveland St. (122.4)HorzA76-54L0%0.0
12-11Idaho (229.1)BSkyH78-75W100%0.0
12-13Alabama St. (208.4)SWACH78-68W100%0.0
12-23Memphis (79.0)AmerA78-51L0%0.0
1-2IPFW (202.4)SumH73-67W100%0.0
1-4Nebraska Omaha (313.1)SumH80-78W100%0.0
1-7South Dakota St. (62.8)SumA75-44L0%0.0
1-10Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH57-66L0%0.0
1-14Denver (225.9)SumA68-54L0%0.0
1-16North Dakota St. (120.4)SumA61-48L0%0.0
1-22South Dakota (222.2)SumH58-68L0%0.0
1-30IUPUI (244.6)SumH63-59W100%0.0
2-1North Dakota St. (120.4)SumH62-64L0%0.0
2-5South Dakota (222.2)SumA75-61L0%0.0
2-12Oral Roberts (163.0)SumA77-67L0%0.0
2-14Nebraska Omaha (313.1)SumA77-58L0%0.0
2-18South Dakota St. (62.8)SumH77-79L0%0.0
2-21Denver (225.9)SumH46-59L0%0.0
2-26IUPUI (244.6)SumA71-66L0%0.0
2-28IPFW (202.4)SumA0-011%-12.8