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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Western Carolina

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:257.4
Current RPI:254
Expected SOS:257
Current Record:8-15
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:4-8
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.84%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-9
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:171
Expected OOC SOS:159


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
17-1651.52%169.00.01%
16-1650.00%176.20.08%
16-1748.48%178.90.39%
15-1648.39%204.90.13%
15-1746.88%206.20.36%
14-1646.67%216.80.28%
15-1845.45%199.01.03%
14-1745.16%218.51.85%
14-1843.75%222.72.07%
13-1743.33%235.62.34%
14-1942.42%209.81.10%
13-1841.94%234.76.71%
13-1940.62%231.32.88%
12-1840.00%250.59.96%
13-2039.39%226.20.78%
12-1938.71%247.27.85%
12-2037.50%244.03.93%
11-1936.67%263.823.07%
12-2136.36%241.50.22%
11-2035.48%266.34.70%
11-2134.38%258.81.78%
11-2233.33%259.50.02%
10-2033.33%276.919.16%
10-2132.26%279.11.69%
10-2231.25%270.50.13%
9-2130.00%287.76.56%
9-2229.03%287.70.22%
8-2226.67%295.80.69%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Carolina (178.0)SECA75-50L0%0.0
11-17Presbyterian (251.9)BSthA73-80W100%0.0
11-20Iowa St. (53.7)B12A92-60L0%0.0
11-22Northern Iowa (66.1)MVCA59-39L0%0.0
11-25Northern Colorado (253.4)BSkyN57-74L0%0.0
11-26Florida A&M (323.5)MEACN46-62W100%0.0
12-1Samford (249.0)SCA71-75W100%0.0
12-3NC Greensboro (257.1)SCH73-69W100%0.0
12-7Purdue (69.2)B10A65-60L0%0.0
12-10Kent St. (82.5)MACH56-58L0%0.0
12-20Bradley (253.2)MVCA67-68W100%0.0
12-28NC Asheville (121.9)BSthH86-67W100%0.0
12-31North Carolina St. (64.3)ACCA82-55L0%0.0
1-5Chattanooga (276.1)SCA78-62L0%0.0
1-7Wofford (168.5)SCH67-57W100%0.0
1-12Davidson (48.8)SCA88-67L0%0.0
1-14Furman (232.7)SCH55-58L0%0.0
1-21Appalachian St. (254.2)SCA84-72L0%0.0
1-26Elon (211.2)SCH63-71L0%0.0
1-28NC Greensboro (257.1)SCA89-86L0%0.0
1-30Wofford (168.5)SCA82-56L0%0.0
2-2Chattanooga (276.1)SCH82-76W100%0.0
2-4Georgia Southern (215.2)SCH65-68L0%0.0
2-9College of Charleston (122.2)SCA0-014%-12.0
2-11Furman (232.7)SCA0-030%-5.8
2-16The Citadel (331.7)SCH0-083%10.4
2-18Elon (211.2)SCA0-034%-4.5
2-23Samford (249.0)SCH0-062%3.4
2-25Appalachian St. (254.2)SCH0-058%2.3