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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Weber St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:78.7
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:240
Current Record:16-4
Expected Record:21-7
Current Conf Record:10-1
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:36.89%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-2
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:70
Expected OOC SOS:112


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
24-485.71%57.12.70%
23-582.14%61.412.17%
22-581.48%79.31.09%
22-678.57%66.824.55%
21-677.78%90.83.66%
21-775.00%75.825.81%
20-774.07%103.24.85%
20-871.43%89.215.86%
19-870.37%117.62.87%
20-968.97%82.00.01%
19-967.86%103.54.97%
18-966.67%131.60.65%
18-1064.29%119.60.57%
17-1062.96%146.50.17%
18-1162.07%128.00.01%
17-1160.71%139.70.03%
16-1159.26%162.50.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Utah St. (129.7)WACH73-63W100%0.0
11-19UC Irvine (259.2)BWA72-80W100%0.0
11-27Jacksonville St. (247.7)OVCN69-61W100%0.0
11-28St. Mary's (16.6)WCCA87-70L0%0.0
12-3San Jose St. (278.3)WACH91-89W100%0.0
12-7Brigham Young (41.8)WCCA94-66L0%0.0
12-10Southern Utah (234.6)SumH84-66W100%0.0
12-16California (40.2)P12A77-57L0%0.0
12-22Utah (275.1)P12H80-51W100%0.0
12-29Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyH78-64W100%0.0
12-31Sacramento St. (305.3)BSkyH74-63W100%0.0
1-5Eastern Washington (207.3)BSkyA69-76W100%0.0
1-7Portland St. (206.9)BSkyA81-88W100%0.0
1-12Montana St. (262.2)BSkyH63-49W100%0.0
1-14Montana (96.9)BSkyH80-64W100%0.0
1-19Northern Arizona (329.4)BSkyH81-67W100%0.0
1-26Sacramento St. (305.3)BSkyA60-75W100%0.0
1-28Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyA64-62L0%0.0
2-2Portland St. (206.9)BSkyH92-79W100%0.0
2-4Northern Colorado (253.4)BSkyH93-81W100%0.0
2-9Northern Arizona (329.4)BSkyA0-090%13.9
2-11Eastern Washington (207.3)BSkyH0-077%8.0
2-15Montana St. (262.2)BSkyA0-077%8.1
2-18Texas Arlington (85.3)SlndH0-052%0.6
2-23Northern Colorado (253.4)BSkyA0-068%5.1
2-28Montana (96.9)BSkyA0-030%-5.6