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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:137.9
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:198
Current Record:10-8
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:14.81%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:131
Expected OOC SOS:30


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
20-871.43%69.20.25%
19-967.86%81.42.68%
18-966.67%111.60.61%
17-965.38%128.50.38%
18-1064.29%98.010.09%
17-1062.96%123.54.35%
16-1061.54%142.13.31%
17-1160.71%113.616.68%
16-1159.26%138.010.39%
15-1157.69%158.47.52%
16-1257.14%130.012.05%
15-1255.56%155.19.67%
14-1253.85%177.27.72%
15-1353.57%147.44.05%
14-1351.85%171.54.60%
14-1450.00%165.60.33%
13-1350.00%196.33.42%
13-1448.15%186.01.08%
13-1546.43%178.00.04%
12-1446.15%211.70.66%
12-1544.44%210.30.06%
11-1542.31%227.40.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Santa Clara (275.1)WCCH89-56W100%0.0
11-22Portland (222.9)WCCH83-69W100%0.0
11-26San Diego St. (30.4)MWCH75-76L0%0.0
11-30Nevada Las Vegas (14.8)MWCH88-94L0%0.0
12-13San Diego (217.4)WCCA61-65W100%0.0
12-16Washington (71.3)P12A87-80L0%0.0
12-19California (40.2)P12A70-50L0%0.0
12-22Brigham Young (41.8)WCCA89-75L0%0.0
1-2Cal Poly (182.0)BWA57-58W100%0.0
1-5Cal St. Fullerton (159.2)BWH77-64W100%0.0
1-12UC Riverside (257.2)BWA79-70L0%0.0
1-14UC Irvine (259.2)BWH74-56W100%0.0
1-19Cal St. Northridge (307.7)BWH69-61W100%0.0
1-21Long Beach St. (33.6)BWH48-71L0%0.0
1-26UC Davis (342.3)BWA59-86W100%0.0
1-28Pacific (263.1)BWA53-56W100%0.0
2-2Cal St. Northridge (307.7)BWA70-85W100%0.0
2-4Cal St. Fullerton (159.2)BWA99-86L0%0.0
2-11UC Riverside (257.2)BWH0-089%13.5
2-15UC Irvine (259.2)BWA0-066%4.4
2-18Utah St. (129.7)WACA0-037%-3.7
2-22Long Beach St. (33.6)BWA0-017%-10.5
2-25Cal Poly (182.0)BWH0-061%3.1
3-1Pacific (263.1)BWH0-084%10.9
3-3UC Davis (342.3)BWH0-097%20.1