Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  UC Santa Barbara   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2010.

UC Santa Barbara

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:101.7
Current RPI:100
Expected SOS:195
Current Record:18-9
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:13-4
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:48.09%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:144
Expected OOC SOS:129


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
19-967.86%95.248.09%
18-1064.29%107.751.91%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Weber St. (84.7)BSkyH66-57W100%0.0
11-23San Francisco (206.8)WCCH76-65W100%0.0
11-28Loyola Marymount (174.0)WCCA89-84W100%0.0
12-1Santa Clara (234.3)WCCH68-79L0%0.0
12-5San Diego St. (24.6)MWCH61-69L0%0.0
12-18Montana St. (200.5)BSkyA64-76L0%0.0
12-21Arizona St. (63.4)P10A42-69L0%0.0
12-28Furman (278.9)SCN72-60W100%0.0
12-29California (18.5)P10A66-87L0%0.0
1-2UC Irvine (275.6)BWA55-57L0%0.0
1-4UC Riverside (255.6)BWA57-53W100%0.0
1-8UC Davis (244.0)BWH68-47W100%0.0
1-10Pacific (128.6)BWH68-67W100%0.0
1-14Long Beach St. (105.3)BWA47-67L0%0.0
1-16UC Riverside (255.6)BWH63-56W100%0.0
1-23Cal St. Fullerton (205.2)BWH85-80W100%0.0
1-28Cal Poly (255.8)BWH80-57W100%0.0
1-30Cal St. Northridge (251.7)BWA69-76L0%0.0
2-4Pacific (128.6)BWA61-48W100%0.0
2-6UC Davis (244.0)BWA81-77W100%0.0
2-13Long Beach St. (105.3)BWH64-62W100%0.0
2-17Cal St. Fullerton (205.2)BWA73-65W100%0.0
2-20Fresno St. (190.4)WACA64-60W100%0.0
2-24Cal St. Northridge (251.7)BWH74-69W100%0.0
2-27Cal Poly (255.8)BWA57-60L0%0.0
3-3UC Irvine (275.6)BWH77-74W100%0.0
3-12UC Davis (244.0)BWN76-62W100%0.0