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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

UC Riverside

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:257.2
Current RPI:256
Expected SOS:269
Current Record:9-12
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.33%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:229
Expected OOC SOS:226


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
17-1454.84%158.00.01%
16-1453.33%193.00.02%
15-1451.72%209.10.10%
16-1551.61%176.70.03%
15-1550.00%198.90.32%
15-1648.39%193.50.30%
14-1548.28%221.60.89%
14-1646.67%215.31.75%
14-1745.16%210.10.84%
13-1644.83%236.46.62%
13-1743.33%230.14.20%
13-1841.94%225.21.56%
12-1741.38%249.719.68%
12-1840.00%246.05.63%
12-1938.71%240.80.90%
11-1837.93%263.928.42%
11-1936.67%260.23.68%
11-2035.48%254.60.30%
10-1934.48%276.018.75%
10-2033.33%273.80.96%
9-2031.03%286.35.03%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Riverside.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Texas El Paso (180.1)CUSAA52-41L0%0.0
11-18Youngstown St. (158.8)HorzA53-49L0%0.0
11-24Villanova (105.3)BEN46-71L0%0.0
11-25Boston College (250.9)ACCN66-62L0%0.0
11-27Washington St. (168.5)P12N64-63W100%0.0
11-30Southern California (237.1)P12H35-56L0%0.0
12-11Montana St. (262.2)BSkyA73-75W100%0.0
12-17Nevada (62.8)WACA71-47L0%0.0
12-19San Diego St. (30.4)MWCA80-55L0%0.0
12-22San Jose St. (278.3)WACH66-64W100%0.0
12-28Texas San Antonio (159.9)SlndA65-70W100%0.0
1-2Cal St. Northridge (307.7)BWH52-63L0%0.0
1-5UC Davis (342.3)BWA58-60W100%0.0
1-7Pacific (263.1)BWA57-64W100%0.0
1-12UC Santa Barbara (137.9)BWH79-70W100%0.0
1-14Cal Poly (182.0)BWH60-53W100%0.0
1-18Cal St. Fullerton (159.2)BWA72-61L0%0.0
1-26Long Beach St. (33.6)BWH70-77L0%0.0
1-28UC Irvine (259.2)BWA65-57L0%0.0
2-2Pacific (263.1)BWH52-60L0%0.0
2-4UC Davis (342.3)BWH59-54W100%0.0
2-9Cal Poly (182.0)BWA0-010%-13.7
2-11UC Santa Barbara (137.9)BWA0-011%-13.5
2-15Cal St. Fullerton (159.2)BWH0-032%-5.1
2-18Southern Utah (234.6)SumH0-052%0.4
2-22Cal St. Northridge (307.7)BWA0-051%0.2
2-25Long Beach St. (33.6)BWA0-03%-20.8
3-3UC Irvine (259.2)BWH0-053%0.7