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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

UC Irvine

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:259.2
Current RPI:273
Expected SOS:212
Current Record:7-13
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.96%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:278
Expected OOC SOS:118


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
15-1550.00%168.50.02%
14-1450.00%197.00.01%
14-1548.28%194.90.09%
14-1646.67%183.80.17%
13-1546.43%219.10.14%
13-1644.83%205.60.89%
13-1743.33%199.80.68%
12-1642.86%230.22.29%
12-1741.38%224.23.51%
12-1840.00%221.11.92%
11-1739.29%245.311.44%
11-1837.93%239.66.75%
11-1936.67%235.42.34%
10-1835.71%260.223.00%
10-1934.48%256.55.96%
10-2033.33%250.60.93%
9-1932.14%273.623.80%
9-2031.03%270.42.93%
9-2130.00%267.20.13%
8-2028.57%284.610.91%
8-2127.59%281.40.24%
7-2125.00%293.31.84%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11California (40.2)P12A77-56L0%0.0
11-14San Jose St. (278.3)WACA51-50L0%0.0
11-19Weber St. (78.7)BSkyH72-80L0%0.0
11-24Southern Mississippi (18.2)CUSAN78-67L0%0.0
11-25Central Michigan (271.5)MACN82-72L0%0.0
12-3San Diego (217.4)WCCH99-79W100%0.0
12-13Wyoming (58.0)MWCA58-48L0%0.0
12-15Louisiana St. (91.6)SECA66-59L0%0.0
12-20UCLA (106.8)P12A89-60L0%0.0
12-29Cal St. Northridge (307.7)BWA62-71W100%0.0
1-2Long Beach St. (33.6)BWH60-74L0%0.0
1-5Pacific (263.1)BWA69-73W100%0.0
1-7UC Davis (342.3)BWA55-70W100%0.0
1-12Cal Poly (182.0)BWH50-66L0%0.0
1-14UC Santa Barbara (137.9)BWA74-56L0%0.0
1-21Cal St. Fullerton (159.2)BWH84-92L0%0.0
1-24Seattle (291.5)indH78-67W100%0.0
1-28UC Riverside (257.2)BWH65-57W100%0.0
2-2UC Davis (342.3)BWH68-61W100%0.0
2-4Pacific (263.1)BWH64-72L0%0.0
2-9Cal St. Fullerton (159.2)BWA0-020%-9.1
2-11Cal Poly (182.0)BWA0-015%-11.2
2-15UC Santa Barbara (137.9)BWH0-034%-4.4
2-18Eastern Washington (207.3)BSkyH0-050%-0.1
2-25Cal St. Northridge (307.7)BWH0-080%9.3
2-29Long Beach St. (33.6)BWA0-05%-18.2
3-3UC Riverside (257.2)BWA0-047%-0.7