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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

The Citadel

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:331.7
Current RPI:338
Expected SOS:238
Current Record:2-19
Expected Record:3-25
Current Conf Record:1-11
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.06%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-13
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:328
Expected OOC SOS:231


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
8-2028.57%291.00.01%
8-2127.59%306.00.01%
8-2226.67%298.00.02%
8-2325.81%290.00.05%
7-2125.00%302.20.04%
7-2224.14%304.30.15%
7-2323.33%304.30.27%
7-2422.58%299.70.15%
6-2221.43%314.10.52%
6-2320.69%313.51.28%
6-2420.00%313.10.84%
6-2519.35%308.20.38%
5-2317.86%322.54.58%
5-2417.24%322.05.05%
5-2516.67%321.01.52%
5-2616.13%318.10.23%
4-2414.29%330.017.37%
4-2513.79%329.19.32%
4-2613.33%328.81.04%
3-2510.71%335.030.76%
3-2610.34%334.25.94%
2-267.14%338.020.46%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for The Citadel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Virginia Military Inst (263.4)BSthN103-100L0%0.0
11-12Army (289.7)PatN72-83W100%0.0
11-16Clemson (165.8)ACCH50-73L0%0.0
11-26High Point (279.0)BSthA80-72L0%0.0
12-1College of Charleston (122.2)SCA83-64L0%0.0
12-3Wofford (168.5)SCA82-63L0%0.0
12-6Coastal Carolina (122.7)BSthH58-80L0%0.0
12-14Charleston Southern (139.3)BSthH69-88L0%0.0
12-19James Madison (249.9)CAAA67-49L0%0.0
12-22Denver (82.1)SBA70-58L0%0.0
12-29Tennessee (140.6)SECA86-55L0%0.0
1-5Furman (232.7)SCA77-45L0%0.0
1-7Samford (249.0)SCH73-62W100%0.0
1-12Elon (211.2)SCH55-70L0%0.0
1-14NC Greensboro (257.1)SCH66-67L0%0.0
1-21Davidson (48.8)SCA80-51L0%0.0
1-23Georgia Southern (215.2)SCA78-72L0%0.0
1-26Wofford (168.5)SCH55-62L0%0.0
1-28Furman (232.7)SCH58-67L0%0.0
2-2NC Greensboro (257.1)SCA82-71L0%0.0
2-4Elon (211.2)SCA71-66L0%0.0
2-9Davidson (48.8)SCH0-04%-19.0
2-11Georgia Southern (215.2)SCH0-031%-5.3
2-16Western Carolina (257.4)SCA0-017%-10.4
2-18Chattanooga (276.1)SCA0-012%-12.8
2-22Appalachian St. (254.2)SCH0-033%-4.8
2-25College of Charleston (122.2)SCH0-012%-12.6