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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Texas Pan American

Conference:GWC
Expected RPI:304.9
Current RPI:306
Expected SOS:267
Current Record:4-17
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:3-2
Expected Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:1-15
Expected OOC Record:1-16
Expected OOC RPI:320
Expected OOC SOS:152


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
12-1741.38%231.30.07%
11-1837.93%250.20.72%
11-1936.67%254.80.37%
10-1835.71%275.20.12%
10-1934.48%269.82.93%
10-2033.33%273.82.45%
9-1932.14%287.82.31%
9-2031.03%286.77.58%
9-2130.00%288.34.82%
8-2028.57%299.48.67%
8-2127.59%299.911.62%
8-2226.67%299.53.94%
7-2125.00%310.614.97%
7-2224.14%309.911.30%
7-2323.33%309.11.25%
6-2221.43%320.814.16%
6-2320.69%318.44.86%
6-2420.00%318.60.18%
5-2317.86%328.96.00%
5-2417.24%327.40.70%
4-2414.29%334.60.97%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Pan American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11DePaul (195.3)BEA91-72L0%0.0
11-13Northwestern (66.4)B10A60-36L0%0.0
11-18South Carolina Upstate (156.4)ASunH66-70L0%0.0
11-19Texas St. (317.6)SlndH79-77W100%0.0
11-20Toledo (273.3)MACH54-64L0%0.0
11-25South Carolina Upstate (156.4)ASunA78-63L0%0.0
11-28Texas Arlington (85.3)SlndA92-60L0%0.0
12-3Ohio St. (4.1)B10A64-35L0%0.0
12-5Lamar (91.1)SlndA60-49L0%0.0
12-18Army (289.7)PatA61-59L0%0.0
12-21St. John's (162.6)BEA66-61L0%0.0
12-29Texas Arlington (85.3)SlndH56-83L0%0.0
12-31Tulane (171.0)CUSAH42-53L0%0.0
1-7Cal St. Bakersfield (215.3)indA72-57L0%0.0
1-9Air Force (181.8)MWCA67-50L0%0.0
1-11Texas Christian (133.2)MWCA88-58L0%0.0
1-19Chicago St. (335.1)GWCA65-72W100%0.0
1-21NJ Inst of Technology (290.3)GWCA58-57L0%0.0
1-28Houston Baptist (311.7)GWCH81-71W100%0.0
2-2Utah Valley (206.6)GWCH69-77L0%0.0
2-4North Dakota (250.8)GWCH70-58W100%0.0
2-8Cal St. Bakersfield (215.3)indH0-040%-2.9
2-16NJ Inst of Technology (290.3)GWCH0-061%3.2
2-18Chicago St. (335.1)GWCH0-079%8.6
2-25Utah Valley (206.6)GWCA0-017%-10.3
2-27North Dakota (250.8)GWCA0-024%-7.8
3-3Houston Baptist (311.7)GWCA0-044%-1.8