Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  St. Mary's   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2010.

St. Mary's

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:35.6
Current RPI:36
Expected SOS:120
Current Record:25-5
Expected Record:25-5
Current Conf Record:13-3
Expected Conf Record:13-3
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:12-2
Expected OOC Record:12-2
Expected OOC RPI:35
Expected OOC SOS:82


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
25-583.33%35.6100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13New Mexico St. (58.1)WACH100-68W100%0.0
11-16San Diego St. (24.6)MWCH80-58W100%0.0
11-20Vanderbilt (19.5)SECH70-72L0%0.0
11-23Cal Poly (255.8)BWH92-67W100%0.0
11-30San Jose St. (177.2)WACA78-71W100%0.0
12-5Utah St. (24.4)WACA68-63W100%0.0
12-12Oregon (138.5)P10A81-76W100%0.0
12-15Portland St. (221.5)BSkyH101-80W100%0.0
12-18Pacific (128.6)BWH80-65W100%0.0
12-22Northeastern (74.0)CAAN78-67W100%0.0
12-23Southern California (110.9)P10N49-60L0%0.0
12-25Hawaii (253.2)WACA84-75W100%0.0
12-29Binghamton (228.9)AEH85-57W100%0.0
12-30Howard (329.6)MEACH94-46W100%0.0
1-8San Francisco (206.8)WCCA83-62W100%0.0
1-10Santa Clara (234.3)WCCA80-72W100%0.0
1-14Gonzaga (37.1)WCCH82-89L0%0.0
1-16Portland (79.9)WCCH77-72W100%0.0
1-21San Diego (230.7)WCCH71-56W100%0.0
1-28Pepperdine (304.1)WCCA88-71W100%0.0
1-30Loyola Marymount (174.0)WCCA85-67W100%0.0
2-4Santa Clara (234.3)WCCH74-62W100%0.0
2-6San Francisco (206.8)WCCH73-57W100%0.0
2-11Gonzaga (37.1)WCCA61-80L0%0.0
2-13Portland (79.9)WCCA75-80L0%0.0
2-18San Diego (230.7)WCCA61-49W100%0.0
2-25Pepperdine (304.1)WCCH76-49W100%0.0
2-27Loyola Marymount (174.0)WCCH88-80W100%0.0
3-7Portland (79.9)WCCN69-55W100%0.0
3-8Gonzaga (37.1)WCCN81-62W100%0.0