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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

St. Mary's

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:16.6
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:110
Current Record:20-2
Expected Record:26-4
Current Conf Record:11-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:43.91%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:31
Expected OOC SOS:79


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
28-293.33%7.26.57%
27-390.00%10.024.29%
26-389.66%20.12.79%
26-486.67%14.029.68%
25-486.21%25.16.92%
25-583.33%19.116.71%
24-582.76%31.26.14%
25-680.65%16.50.06%
24-680.00%25.33.70%
23-679.31%37.82.32%
24-777.42%23.00.01%
23-776.67%32.70.35%
22-775.86%48.20.40%
23-874.19%28.00.01%
22-873.33%41.50.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northern Iowa (66.1)MVCH57-41W100%0.0
11-23Denver (82.1)SBA70-58L0%0.0
11-28Weber St. (78.7)BSkyH87-70W100%0.0
12-3Cal Poly (182.0)BWA54-59W100%0.0
12-13Jackson St. (312.2)SWACH77-53W100%0.0
12-15North Carolina A&T (269.1)MEACH84-45W100%0.0
12-17Bethune Cookman (257.8)MEACH77-52W100%0.0
12-19Kennesaw St. (320.2)ASunH74-51W100%0.0
12-20Eastern Washington (207.3)BSkyH77-61W100%0.0
12-22Baylor (9.9)B12N72-59L0%0.0
12-23Missouri St. (82.9)MVCN61-77W100%0.0
12-29Brigham Young (41.8)WCCH98-82W100%0.0
12-31Pepperdine (252.4)WCCA45-74W100%0.0
1-5San Diego (217.4)WCCA72-78W100%0.0
1-9San Francisco (154.1)WCCH87-72W100%0.0
1-12Gonzaga (29.8)WCCH83-62W100%0.0
1-14Portland (222.9)WCCH69-61W100%0.0
1-19Pepperdine (252.4)WCCH61-47W100%0.0
1-21Santa Clara (275.1)WCCA77-93W100%0.0
1-26Loyola Marymount (110.2)WCCA64-71W100%0.0
1-28Brigham Young (41.8)WCCA66-80W100%0.0
2-2San Diego (217.4)WCCH84-73W100%0.0
2-9Gonzaga (29.8)WCCA0-042%-2.1
2-11Santa Clara (275.1)WCCH0-098%22.4
2-15Loyola Marymount (110.2)WCCH0-091%14.5
2-18Murray St. (26.6)OVCA0-054%1.0
2-23Portland (222.9)WCCA0-093%16.0
2-25San Francisco (154.1)WCCA0-080%9.2