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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

St. Francis NY

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:187.8
Current RPI:203
Expected SOS:288
Current Record:13-10
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:10-2
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:5.32%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:302
Expected OOC SOS:317


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
22-1068.75%130.00.07%
21-1165.62%138.40.81%
20-1164.52%161.60.70%
19-1163.33%168.30.19%
20-1262.50%142.63.05%
19-1261.29%168.35.33%
18-1260.00%179.13.44%
19-1359.38%149.36.37%
18-1358.06%177.511.88%
17-1356.67%193.910.67%
18-1456.25%160.96.27%
17-1454.84%189.713.63%
16-1453.33%208.212.93%
17-1553.12%173.93.33%
16-1551.61%203.47.51%
16-1650.00%185.61.11%
15-1550.00%221.57.83%
15-1648.39%214.31.76%
15-1746.88%198.50.08%
14-1646.67%232.52.52%
14-1745.16%221.00.15%
13-1743.33%245.90.36%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis NY.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Seton Hall (60.2)BEA75-71L0%0.0
11-16Lafayette (210.0)PatA79-73L0%0.0
11-19Hofstra (234.9)CAAA63-59L0%0.0
11-22St. John's (162.6)BEA63-48L0%0.0
11-26NJ Inst of Technology (290.3)GWCA60-79W100%0.0
12-1Mount St. Mary's (290.0)NECA54-64W100%0.0
12-3Wagner (86.8)NECA90-50L0%0.0
12-10Colgate (294.4)PatA65-63L0%0.0
12-12Howard (300.1)MEACA71-73W100%0.0
12-19Albany (206.4)AEH64-76L0%0.0
12-23Norfolk St. (123.5)MEACH74-84L0%0.0
12-29Brown (307.6)IvyH66-49W100%0.0
12-31Army (289.7)PatA79-70L0%0.0
1-5Quinnipiac (165.8)NECH73-72W100%0.0
1-7Sacred Heart (237.3)NECA84-99W100%0.0
1-12Monmouth (274.9)NECH81-64W100%0.0
1-14Fairleigh Dickinson (324.2)NECH62-51W100%0.0
1-19Wagner (86.8)NECH61-73L0%0.0
1-21Mount St. Mary's (290.0)NECH79-60W100%0.0
1-26St. Francis PA (304.6)NECA65-75W100%0.0
1-28Robert Morris (106.1)NECA68-81W100%0.0
2-2Central Connecticut (227.1)NECH73-67W100%0.0
2-4Bryant (335.4)NECH80-67W100%0.0
2-8Long Island (116.2)NECH0-050%-0.0
2-11Long Island (116.2)NECA0-027%-6.6
2-16Quinnipiac (165.8)NECA0-031%-5.5
2-18Sacred Heart (237.3)NECH0-069%5.4
2-23Monmouth (274.9)NECA0-070%5.8
2-25Fairleigh Dickinson (324.2)NECA0-076%7.7