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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Southern Utah

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:234.6
Current RPI:242
Expected SOS:262
Current Record:10-12
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:7-7
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.93%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:313
Expected OOC SOS:343


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
17-1356.67%142.40.07%
16-1355.17%167.90.18%
15-1353.57%196.10.40%
16-1453.33%158.00.51%
15-1451.72%186.51.59%
15-1550.00%178.11.18%
14-1450.00%212.04.33%
14-1548.28%203.25.46%
14-1646.67%196.81.59%
13-1546.43%227.016.02%
13-1644.83%218.28.55%
13-1743.33%212.60.84%
12-1642.86%241.527.07%
12-1741.38%233.55.14%
12-1840.00%224.50.22%
11-1739.29%256.119.74%
11-1837.93%247.61.37%
10-1835.71%269.95.73%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UC Davis (342.3)BWN75-76W100%0.0
11-12San Diego St. (30.4)MWCA70-37L0%0.0
11-13Bryant (335.4)NECN95-78W100%0.0
11-19Utah St. (129.7)WACA65-62L0%0.0
11-26Troy (271.6)SBH76-80L0%0.0
12-3Oral Roberts (40.9)SumA61-55L0%0.0
12-10Weber St. (78.7)BSkyA84-66L0%0.0
12-20Troy (271.6)SBA80-72L0%0.0
12-22UC Davis (342.3)BWH62-51W100%0.0
12-28South Dakota (283.1)SumA75-81W100%0.0
12-30Missouri Kansas City (244.9)SumA77-91W100%0.0
1-3IUPU Fort Wayne (271.7)SumA79-58L0%0.0
1-5South Dakota St. (49.5)SumH68-75L0%0.0
1-7North Dakota St. (121.0)SumH69-72L0%0.0
1-12IUPUI (246.0)SumA64-72W100%0.0
1-14Western Illinois (180.2)SumA55-65W100%0.0
1-19Oakland (140.4)SumH63-72L0%0.0
1-21IUPU Fort Wayne (271.7)SumH58-56W100%0.0
1-26Missouri Kansas City (244.9)SumH57-47W100%0.0
1-28South Dakota (283.1)SumH62-60W100%0.0
2-2North Dakota St. (121.0)SumA85-64L0%0.0
2-4South Dakota St. (49.5)SumA66-56L0%0.0
2-9Western Illinois (180.2)SumH0-047%-0.8
2-11IUPUI (246.0)SumH0-058%2.2
2-15Oakland (140.4)SumA0-022%-8.4
2-18UC Riverside (257.2)BWA0-048%-0.4
2-25Oral Roberts (40.9)SumH0-020%-9.4