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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Southern Methodist

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:217.6
Current RPI:201
Expected SOS:143
Current Record:8-13
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:2-7
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.06%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:188
Expected OOC SOS:233


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
17-1454.84%133.00.01%
17-1553.12%114.00.01%
16-1551.61%145.30.09%
17-1651.52%111.30.03%
16-1650.00%140.20.11%
15-1550.00%168.00.26%
16-1748.48%130.40.09%
15-1648.39%157.20.77%
15-1746.88%152.30.35%
14-1646.67%183.11.53%
15-1845.45%148.30.22%
14-1745.16%173.22.94%
14-1843.75%167.70.96%
13-1743.33%198.65.57%
14-1942.42%162.60.32%
13-1841.94%190.56.54%
13-1940.62%184.21.36%
12-1840.00%212.814.85%
13-2039.39%176.70.22%
12-1938.71%207.17.27%
12-2037.50%199.41.19%
11-1936.67%225.220.21%
12-2136.36%189.60.13%
11-2035.48%220.55.17%
11-2134.38%212.10.58%
11-2233.33%197.00.01%
10-2033.33%237.917.26%
10-2132.26%233.32.26%
10-2231.25%226.50.11%
9-2130.00%250.77.58%
9-2229.03%245.30.51%
8-2226.67%263.11.48%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Methodist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Colorado St. (42.4)MWCN75-56L0%0.0
11-15Fresno St. (181.1)WACN52-54L0%0.0
11-19Florida Gulf Coast (212.7)ASunH65-64W100%0.0
11-21Oral Roberts (40.9)SumA62-56L0%0.0
11-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (322.7)SWACN64-55W100%0.0
11-27Georgia Southern (215.2)SCH55-49W100%0.0
12-4Arkansas Little Rock (187.9)SBA63-69W100%0.0
12-15Jackson St. (312.2)SWACN58-59L0%0.0
12-19Southeast Missouri St. (236.6)OVCA65-84W100%0.0
12-28Oklahoma St. (119.2)B12N58-68L0%0.0
12-31Louisiana Tech (205.7)WACH73-65W100%0.0
1-3Mississippi (79.8)SECA50-48L0%0.0
1-7Tulsa (106.2)CUSAA55-57W100%0.0
1-11Rice (180.2)CUSAH52-68L0%0.0
1-14Texas El Paso (180.1)CUSAA70-64L0%0.0
1-18Houston (235.4)CUSAH70-54W100%0.0
1-21Memphis (33.8)CUSAA63-45L0%0.0
1-25Tulane (171.0)CUSAA80-74L0%0.0
1-28Tulsa (106.2)CUSAH60-66L0%0.0
2-1East Carolina (158.6)CUSAA62-43L0%0.0
2-4Central Florida (77.0)CUSAH52-59L0%0.0
2-8Texas Christian (133.2)MWCH0-054%1.1
2-11Rice (180.2)CUSAA0-029%-6.0
2-15UAB (146.2)CUSAH0-049%-0.1
2-18Marshall (62.5)CUSAH0-028%-6.2
2-22Tulane (171.0)CUSAH0-043%-1.8
2-25Houston (235.4)CUSAA0-036%-3.9
2-29Southern Mississippi (18.2)CUSAA0-09%-14.9
3-3Texas El Paso (180.1)CUSAH0-047%-0.7