live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Southern Illinois

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:229.9
Current RPI:224
Expected SOS:117
Current Record:8-15
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:5-8
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.02%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:304
Expected OOC SOS:284


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
15-1746.88%138.00.01%
14-1646.67%143.00.01%
14-1745.16%153.80.08%
14-1843.75%156.70.06%
13-1743.33%177.50.17%
14-1942.42%148.00.02%
13-1841.94%174.30.81%
13-1940.62%171.60.18%
12-1840.00%197.01.31%
13-2039.39%159.70.12%
12-1938.71%190.23.45%
12-2037.50%186.70.51%
11-1936.67%212.86.38%
12-2136.36%177.40.13%
11-2035.48%205.38.65%
11-2134.38%203.50.53%
11-2233.33%194.80.12%
10-2033.33%227.218.08%
10-2132.26%219.510.84%
10-2231.25%216.20.31%
9-2130.00%242.526.13%
9-2229.03%235.26.56%
8-2226.67%257.915.53%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15St. Louis (28.8)A10H42-61L0%0.0
11-19Northeastern (165.1)CAAA64-57L0%0.0
11-25Chicago St. (335.1)GWCH73-57W100%0.0
12-7Western Kentucky (240.9)SBH55-62L0%0.0
12-11Western Michigan (182.0)MACA54-43L0%0.0
12-17Northern Illinois (337.7)MACA49-62W100%0.0
12-19SIU Edwardsville (305.6)OVCH80-57W100%0.0
12-22Kansas St. (49.5)B12N58-83L0%0.0
12-23Clemson (165.8)ACCN75-83L0%0.0
12-25Xavier (62.4)A10N77-87L0%0.0
12-29Evansville (149.4)MVCA78-60L0%0.0
1-1Illinois St. (109.7)MVCH86-71W100%0.0
1-4Bradley (253.2)MVCA65-74W100%0.0
1-7Wichita St. (15.9)MVCH73-83L0%0.0
1-10Missouri St. (82.9)MVCA77-65L0%0.0
1-13Indiana St. (137.7)MVCH73-67W100%0.0
1-15Creighton (24.5)MVCA90-71L0%0.0
1-18Drake (143.0)MVCH68-75L0%0.0
1-21Wichita St. (15.9)MVCA85-42L0%0.0
1-24Bradley (253.2)MVCH77-60W100%0.0
1-28Illinois St. (109.7)MVCA60-40L0%0.0
1-31Northern Iowa (66.1)MVCA58-49L0%0.0
2-4Evansville (149.4)MVCH53-52W100%0.0
2-8Missouri St. (82.9)MVCH0-021%-8.6
2-11Indiana St. (137.7)MVCA0-022%-8.4
2-14Creighton (24.5)MVCH0-012%-12.7
2-18Ball St. (218.9)MACA0-028%-6.4
2-22Drake (143.0)MVCA0-023%-8.0
2-25Northern Iowa (66.1)MVCH0-025%-7.5