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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

South Florida

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:103.2
Current RPI:78
Expected SOS:23
Current Record:12-10
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.20%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:125
Expected OOC SOS:61


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
22-1166.67%16.00.01%
21-1263.64%33.00.01%
20-1262.50%37.50.02%
19-1261.29%56.00.03%
20-1360.61%31.20.09%
19-1359.38%50.00.27%
20-1458.82%34.80.12%
18-1358.06%64.60.49%
19-1457.58%48.60.43%
20-1557.14%32.30.03%
18-1456.25%62.21.58%
19-1555.88%43.80.25%
17-1454.84%78.63.17%
18-1554.55%58.90.83%
19-1654.29%46.00.06%
17-1553.12%74.35.49%
18-1652.94%57.30.32%
16-1551.61%92.29.34%
17-1651.52%72.92.31%
18-1751.43%54.20.16%
17-1750.00%72.30.58%
16-1650.00%89.410.48%
17-1848.57%71.80.08%
16-1748.48%87.43.88%
15-1648.39%106.515.23%
16-1847.06%84.80.44%
15-1746.88%106.611.43%
16-1945.71%89.00.01%
15-1845.45%102.21.67%
14-1745.16%122.413.41%
15-1944.12%99.80.05%
14-1843.75%119.55.30%
14-1942.42%117.10.41%
13-1841.94%136.18.54%
13-1940.62%132.51.09%
12-1938.71%150.62.38%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Vermont (155.6)AEH61-59W100%0.0
11-14Marist (275.6)MAACH81-67W100%0.0
11-19Old Dominion (124.0)CAAN66-68L0%0.0
11-20Penn St. (172.5)B10N53-49L0%0.0
11-23Georgia Southern (215.2)SCH66-46W100%0.0
11-26Florida Atlantic (177.8)SBH68-55W100%0.0
11-30Virginia Commonwealth (69.1)CAAA69-46L0%0.0
12-3Kansas (9.2)B12A70-42L0%0.0
12-11Florida A&M (323.5)MEACH83-59W100%0.0
12-14Auburn (159.9)SECA52-40L0%0.0
12-19Cleveland St. (55.0)HorzH70-55W100%0.0
12-22Southern Mississippi (18.2)CUSAA53-51L0%0.0
12-28Connecticut (36.1)BEH57-60L0%0.0
1-1Rutgers (147.8)BEH67-65W100%0.0
1-5Villanova (105.3)BEA57-74W100%0.0
1-10Notre Dame (71.9)BEA60-49L0%0.0
1-13Seton Hall (60.2)BEH56-55W100%0.0
1-18St. John's (162.6)BEH64-49W100%0.0
1-22DePaul (195.3)BEA59-75W100%0.0
1-24Marquette (17.6)BEA67-47L0%0.0
1-29Providence (160.2)BEH81-78W100%0.0
2-4Georgetown (15.3)BEA75-45L0%0.0
2-8Pittsburgh (74.0)BEH0-047%-0.8
2-11Providence (160.2)BEA0-040%-2.9
2-15Villanova (105.3)BEH0-051%0.4
2-19Pittsburgh (74.0)BEA0-025%-7.3
2-22Syracuse (3.4)BEA0-04%-18.6
2-26Cincinnati (91.3)BEH0-043%-1.9
2-29Louisville (24.8)BEA0-013%-12.4
3-3West Virginia (33.4)BEH0-033%-4.7