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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

San Francisco

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:154.1
Current RPI:157
Expected SOS:149
Current Record:13-10
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.54%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:133
Expected OOC SOS:246


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
21-1165.62%62.60.05%
20-1164.52%82.80.04%
19-1163.33%107.00.19%
20-1262.50%80.40.33%
18-1162.07%124.40.17%
19-1261.29%102.71.29%
18-1260.00%124.22.55%
19-1359.38%94.91.00%
17-1258.62%142.51.64%
18-1358.06%117.65.80%
17-1356.67%140.810.76%
18-1456.25%110.01.38%
16-1355.17%160.16.45%
17-1454.84%132.710.24%
16-1453.33%156.818.33%
17-1553.12%123.30.55%
15-1451.72%176.711.55%
16-1551.61%146.54.58%
16-1650.00%138.10.08%
15-1550.00%171.112.58%
15-1648.39%159.70.35%
14-1548.28%193.46.95%
14-1646.67%185.02.17%
13-1644.83%209.10.96%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Dakota St. (121.0)SumH65-73L0%0.0
11-12Northern Arizona (329.4)BSkyH69-50W100%0.0
11-13Louisiana Lafayette (158.5)SBH71-70W100%0.0
11-16San Jose St. (278.3)WACH83-81W100%0.0
11-19Seattle (291.5)indA63-69W100%0.0
11-23Dartmouth (322.1)IvyN71-69W100%0.0
11-25Murray St. (26.6)OVCN67-70L0%0.0
11-26New Mexico St. (67.9)WACN71-81L0%0.0
12-1Montana (96.9)BSkyA62-65W100%0.0
12-10Pacific (263.1)BWH79-69W100%0.0
12-22Holy Cross (226.6)PatA88-83L0%0.0
12-29Pepperdine (252.4)WCCA77-61L0%0.0
12-31Loyola Marymount (110.2)WCCH76-77L0%0.0
1-3Morgan St. (267.3)MEACH87-74W100%0.0
1-7Brigham Young (41.8)WCCA81-56L0%0.0
1-9St. Mary's (16.6)WCCA87-72L0%0.0
1-12Portland (222.9)WCCH104-70W100%0.0
1-14Pepperdine (252.4)WCCH78-63W100%0.0
1-19Gonzaga (29.8)WCCA74-63L0%0.0
1-21Portland (222.9)WCCA71-72W100%0.0
1-26Santa Clara (275.1)WCCA77-90W100%0.0
1-28San Diego (217.4)WCCH84-70W100%0.0
2-4Loyola Marymount (110.2)WCCA90-88L0%0.0
2-9Santa Clara (275.1)WCCH0-082%9.9
2-11San Diego (217.4)WCCA0-058%2.3
2-16Brigham Young (41.8)WCCH0-022%-8.5
2-18Gonzaga (29.8)WCCH0-023%-8.0
2-25St. Mary's (16.6)WCCH0-020%-9.2