Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  San Diego St.   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2010.

San Diego St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:24.6
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:57
Current Record:22-8
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:26.90%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:36
Expected OOC SOS:101


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
23-874.19%20.626.90%
22-970.97%26.173.10%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16St. Mary's (35.6)WCCA58-80L0%0.0
11-19Santa Clara (234.3)WCCH86-53W100%0.0
11-23Fresno St. (190.4)WACA62-58W100%0.0
11-25Pacific (128.6)BWA63-71L0%0.0
11-28Northern Arizona (198.2)BSkyH89-48W100%0.0
12-2San Diego (230.7)WCCA69-62W100%0.0
12-5UC Santa Barbara (101.7)BWA69-61W100%0.0
12-9Cal St. Fullerton (205.2)BWH82-68W100%0.0
12-12Arizona (95.4)P10H63-46W100%0.0
12-19Arizona St. (63.4)P10A52-55L0%0.0
12-22Drake (180.1)MVCA76-73W100%0.0
12-29UC Riverside (255.6)BWH58-53W100%0.0
1-5New Mexico (10.5)MWCH74-64W100%0.0
1-9Wyoming (227.6)MWCA83-85L0%0.0
1-13Nevada Las Vegas (40.1)MWCA66-76L0%0.0
1-16Texas Christian (188.1)MWCH67-62W100%0.0
1-19Utah (156.1)MWCA70-68W100%0.0
1-23Brigham Young (21.9)MWCH69-71L0%0.0
1-30Colorado St. (119.8)MWCA64-52W100%0.0
2-2Air Force (244.3)MWCH70-48W100%0.0
2-6New Mexico (10.5)MWCA86-88L0%0.0
2-10Wyoming (227.6)MWCH88-57W100%0.0
2-13Nevada Las Vegas (40.1)MWCH68-58W100%0.0
2-16Texas Christian (188.1)MWCA68-51W100%0.0
2-20Utah (156.1)MWCH68-61W100%0.0
2-24Brigham Young (21.9)MWCA68-82L0%0.0
3-3Colorado St. (119.8)MWCH68-55W100%0.0
3-6Air Force (244.3)MWCA61-42W100%0.0
3-11Colorado St. (119.8)MWCN72-71W100%0.0
3-12New Mexico (10.5)MWCN72-69W100%0.0