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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Northwestern St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:179.3
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:265
Current Record:11-9
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:7-2
Expected Conf Record:11-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:3.10%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-4
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:172
Expected OOC SOS:163


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
21-1067.74%92.60.10%
20-1066.67%115.00.05%
19-1065.52%136.00.07%
20-1164.52%104.20.67%
19-1163.33%130.70.84%
18-1162.07%152.20.61%
19-1261.29%119.72.92%
18-1260.00%143.64.65%
17-1258.62%164.85.05%
18-1358.06%134.33.45%
17-1356.67%156.810.07%
16-1355.17%181.313.98%
17-1454.84%151.03.15%
16-1453.33%173.511.46%
15-1451.72%198.218.05%
16-1551.61%165.91.68%
15-1550.00%190.85.73%
15-1648.39%185.70.50%
14-1548.28%214.410.95%
14-1646.67%207.31.59%
14-1745.16%204.20.09%
13-1644.83%229.83.62%
13-1743.33%225.00.19%
12-1741.38%244.80.48%
12-1840.00%255.00.01%
11-1837.93%254.30.03%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Arkansas Little Rock (187.9)SBA72-66L0%0.0
11-17Alabama St. (302.2)SWACA60-67W100%0.0
11-19Marshall (62.5)CUSAA83-61L0%0.0
11-21Cincinnati (91.3)BEA71-43L0%0.0
11-25Jacksonville St. (247.7)OVCH66-61W100%0.0
11-29Arkansas Little Rock (187.9)SBH80-65W100%0.0
12-2Missouri (12.8)B12A90-56L0%0.0
12-6Louisiana Tech (205.7)WACA94-93L0%0.0
12-15Louisiana Monroe (324.7)SBA63-76W100%0.0
12-22Mississippi St. (48.3)SECN82-67L0%0.0
12-31Oklahoma (99.1)B12A83-63L0%0.0
1-7Texas St. (317.6)SlndH83-68W100%0.0
1-11Nicholls St. (315.0)SlndA79-80W100%0.0
1-14Central Arkansas (299.9)SlndH73-77L0%0.0
1-18Texas San Antonio (159.9)SlndA80-62L0%0.0
1-21McNeese St. (207.5)SlndA61-64W100%0.0
1-25Lamar (91.1)SlndH74-62W100%0.0
1-28Southeastern Louisiana (326.4)SlndH55-38W100%0.0
2-1Central Arkansas (299.9)SlndA68-79W100%0.0
2-4Texas A&M Corpus Chris (316.1)SlndH82-68W100%0.0
2-8Lamar (91.1)SlndA0-015%-11.5
2-11Southeastern Louisiana (326.4)SlndA0-071%6.1
2-13McNeese St. (207.5)SlndH0-069%5.3
2-18Campbell (155.0)BSthH0-053%0.9
2-22Sam Houston St. (285.0)SlndH0-077%7.9
2-25Texas Arlington (85.3)SlndA0-013%-12.4
2-29Nicholls St. (315.0)SlndH0-093%16.2
3-3Stephen F. Austin (246.7)SlndA0-034%-4.5