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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Northern Illinois

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:337.7
Current RPI:335
Expected SOS:252
Current Record:1-18
Expected Record:2-26
Current Conf Record:1-8
Expected Conf Record:2-15
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-12
Current OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:341
Expected OOC SOS:291


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
8-2127.59%284.00.01%
7-2125.00%302.00.01%
6-2221.43%312.70.09%
5-2317.86%320.90.82%
5-2417.24%317.20.17%
5-2516.67%315.00.03%
4-2414.29%328.14.75%
4-2513.79%323.70.62%
4-2613.33%319.40.05%
3-2510.71%334.618.99%
3-2610.34%331.61.18%
3-2710.00%327.80.09%
2-267.14%338.638.42%
2-276.90%336.91.14%
1-273.57%341.033.62%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Purdue (69.2)B10A96-34L0%0.0
11-14Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.0)HorzH57-59L0%0.0
11-17Iowa (149.1)B10A88-55L0%0.0
11-20Eastern Illinois (295.0)OVCH55-67L0%0.0
11-26Boise St. (185.1)MWCA71-57L0%0.0
11-28Utah Valley (206.6)GWCA58-47L0%0.0
12-10Illinois Chicago (292.2)HorzA62-55L0%0.0
12-14DePaul (195.3)BEH52-75L0%0.0
12-17Southern Illinois (229.9)MVCH49-62L0%0.0
12-20Valparaiso (105.3)HorzH48-59L0%0.0
1-7Eastern Michigan (253.1)MACH40-47L0%0.0
1-11Western Michigan (182.0)MACA77-68L0%0.0
1-14Central Michigan (271.5)MACH74-66W100%0.0
1-18Toledo (273.3)MACA71-41L0%0.0
1-21Ball St. (218.9)MACH65-75L0%0.0
1-25Kent St. (82.5)MACA90-56L0%0.0
1-28Buffalo (65.6)MACH59-74L0%0.0
2-1Ohio (61.7)MACH58-67L0%0.0
2-4Bowling Green (155.4)MACA65-40L0%0.0
2-8Miami OH (208.4)MACH0-013%-12.2
2-11Akron (44.8)MACA0-00%-28.1
2-15Western Michigan (182.0)MACH0-014%-11.9
2-18SIU Edwardsville (305.6)OVCA0-023%-8.1
2-22Eastern Michigan (253.1)MACA0-013%-12.2
2-26Central Michigan (271.5)MACA0-09%-14.6
2-29Toledo (273.3)MACH0-021%-8.9
3-2Ball St. (218.9)MACA0-03%-19.9