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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Northern Colorado

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:253.4
Current RPI:260
Expected SOS:157
Current Record:6-14
Expected Record:8-18
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.26%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:14


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
15-1451.72%121.00.01%
14-1548.28%157.30.03%
13-1546.43%186.90.09%
13-1644.83%166.80.18%
12-1544.44%208.50.04%
12-1642.86%201.00.93%
11-1542.31%206.50.02%
12-1741.38%184.70.41%
11-1640.74%219.60.83%
11-1739.29%212.33.17%
10-1638.46%227.02.02%
11-1837.93%197.50.40%
10-1737.04%234.43.83%
10-1835.71%223.03.39%
9-1734.62%242.615.39%
10-1934.48%209.20.11%
9-1833.33%247.96.32%
9-1932.14%236.90.80%
8-1830.77%258.032.78%
8-1929.63%262.11.65%
7-1926.92%272.022.68%
6-2023.08%282.94.91%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12New Mexico St. (67.9)WACH75-89L0%0.0
11-15Wyoming (58.0)MWCA75-56L0%0.0
11-20Northern Iowa (66.1)MVCA78-69L0%0.0
11-22Iowa St. (53.7)B12A90-82L0%0.0
11-25Western Carolina (257.4)SCN57-74W100%0.0
11-26Southern (280.2)SWACN57-77W100%0.0
12-14Denver (82.1)SBH65-71L0%0.0
12-17Marquette (17.6)BEA93-72L0%0.0
12-22Colorado St. (42.4)MWCH78-92L0%0.0
12-31Northern Arizona (329.4)BSkyH80-64W100%0.0
1-2Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyH55-57L0%0.0
1-7Sacramento St. (305.3)BSkyA53-61W100%0.0
1-12Portland St. (206.9)BSkyH75-86L0%0.0
1-14Eastern Washington (207.3)BSkyH71-70W100%0.0
1-19Montana (96.9)BSkyA76-58L0%0.0
1-21Montana St. (262.2)BSkyA84-72L0%0.0
1-26Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyA99-94L0%0.0
1-30Northern Arizona (329.4)BSkyA62-64W100%0.0
2-2Sacramento St. (305.3)BSkyH62-73L0%0.0
2-4Weber St. (78.7)BSkyA93-81L0%0.0
2-9Montana (96.9)BSkyH0-025%-7.5
2-11Montana St. (262.2)BSkyH0-072%6.2
2-15Eastern Washington (207.3)BSkyA0-026%-7.0
2-18Cal Poly (182.0)BWH0-032%-5.0
2-23Weber St. (78.7)BSkyH0-032%-5.1
2-28Portland St. (206.9)BSkyA0-030%-5.7