Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Northern Colorado   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 7, 2010.

Northern Colorado

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:105.5
Current RPI:110
Expected SOS:320
Current Record:23-6
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:12-4
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:22.36%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-3
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:129
Expected OOC SOS:342


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
25-680.65%96.322.36%
24-777.42%102.243.81%
23-776.67%116.033.82%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13McNeese St. (314.3)SlndN101-73W100%0.0
11-15Southern Utah (326.3)SumN73-51W100%0.0
11-16Hawaii (251.6)WACA81-75W100%0.0
11-20Texas Southern (228.7)SWACN66-62W100%0.0
11-21Air Force (257.1)MWCA70-46W100%0.0
11-27North Dakota (338.3)GWCA70-63W100%0.0
12-1Colorado St. (118.6)MWCH70-63W100%0.0
12-4Montana St. (201.3)BSkyA63-87L0%0.0
12-5Montana (118.5)BSkyA59-48W100%0.0
12-12Wyoming (217.2)MWCN70-76L0%0.0
12-16Louisiana Monroe (277.3)SBH95-84W100%0.0
12-19Oklahoma (112.9)B12A79-80L0%0.0
12-21San Jose St. (165.4)WACH93-69W100%0.0
12-28Denver (153.1)SBH72-57W100%0.0
12-30Texas Christian (188.1)MWCA64-53W100%0.0
1-2Northern Arizona (201.2)BSkyA75-66W100%0.0
1-7Weber St. (77.3)BSkyH84-75W100%0.0
1-9Idaho St. (303.8)BSkyH78-66W100%0.0
1-15Portland St. (218.6)BSkyA69-85L0%0.0
1-16Eastern Washington (273.9)BSkyA74-71W100%0.0
1-22Sacramento St. (297.9)BSkyH79-65W100%0.0
1-28Montana (118.5)BSkyH62-64L0%0.0
1-31Montana St. (201.3)BSkyH74-68W100%0.0
2-7Northern Arizona (201.2)BSkyH70-63W100%0.0
2-12Idaho St. (303.8)BSkyA68-59W100%0.0
2-13Weber St. (77.3)BSkyA76-81L0%0.0
2-18Eastern Washington (273.9)BSkyH58-54W100%0.0
2-20Portland St. (218.6)BSkyH64-61W100%0.0
2-27Sacramento St. (297.9)BSkyA78-66W100%0.0