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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.

Northern Arizona

Expected RPI:333.0
Current RPI:333
Expected SOS:165
Current Record:3-25
Expected Record:3-25
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-13
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:266
Expected OOC SOS:3


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Washington St. (212.0)P12A82-70L0%0.0
11-16Boise St. (101.0)MWCA101-81L0%0.0
11-18Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA91-52L0%0.0
11-30Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH66-70L0%0.0
12-2Hampton (155.0)MEACH94-98L0%0.0
12-5Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACA72-55L0%0.0
12-16Arizona (26.0)P12A92-37L0%0.0
12-20Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBA84-57L0%0.0
12-22Tulsa (58.0)AmerA90-55L0%0.0
12-31Montana (145.0)BSkyH84-90L0%0.0
1-2Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH72-74L0%0.0
1-9Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyA63-73W100%0.0
1-14Idaho (191.0)BSkyA83-76L0%0.0
1-16Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyA96-73L0%0.0
1-21North Dakota (218.0)BSkyH59-101L0%0.0
1-23Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyH79-84L0%0.0
1-28Weber St. (108.0)BSkyA76-66L0%0.0
1-30Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyA88-66L0%0.0
2-4Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH73-84L0%0.0
2-6Idaho (191.0)BSkyH72-70W100%0.0
2-11Montana St. (260.0)BSkyA101-58L0%0.0
2-13Montana (145.0)BSkyA85-67L0%0.0
2-18Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH81-68W100%0.0
2-20Weber St. (108.0)BSkyH74-77L0%0.0
2-27Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyH59-69L0%0.0
3-3Portland St. (282.0)BSkyA89-81L0%0.0
3-5Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyA64-51L0%0.0
3-8Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyN74-52L0%0.0