Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Northern Arizona   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2010.

Northern Arizona

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:198.2
Current RPI:198
Expected SOS:230
Current Record:12-14
Expected Record:12-14
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-1
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:177
Expected OOC SOS:237


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
12-1446.15%198.2100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Arizona (95.4)P10A70-87L0%0.0
11-17Fresno St. (190.4)WACH59-65L0%0.0
11-25Santa Clara (234.3)WCCA88-72W100%0.0
11-28San Diego St. (24.6)MWCA48-89L0%0.0
12-4Montana (97.3)BSkyA54-71L0%0.0
12-5Montana St. (200.5)BSkyA50-62L0%0.0
12-13UC Riverside (255.6)BWH68-56W100%0.0
12-16New Mexico (10.5)MWCA57-96L0%0.0
12-19Air Force (244.3)MWCA60-52W100%0.0
12-20Colorado St. (119.8)MWCA56-64L0%0.0
12-28Texas Pan American (336.0)GWCA64-59W100%0.0
1-2Northern Colorado (116.7)BSkyH66-75L0%0.0
1-7Idaho St. (303.8)BSkyH68-56W100%0.0
1-9Weber St. (84.7)BSkyH62-87L0%0.0
1-15Eastern Washington (277.8)BSkyA73-69W100%0.0
1-17Portland St. (221.5)BSkyA93-86W100%0.0
1-24Sacramento St. (297.0)BSkyH75-71W100%0.0
1-28Montana St. (200.5)BSkyH71-58W100%0.0
1-30Montana (97.3)BSkyH64-84L0%0.0
2-7Northern Colorado (116.7)BSkyA63-70L0%0.0
2-12Weber St. (84.7)BSkyA66-76L0%0.0
2-13Idaho St. (303.8)BSkyA71-73L0%0.0
2-18Portland St. (221.5)BSkyH86-85W100%0.0
2-20Eastern Washington (277.8)BSkyH74-71W100%0.0
2-26Sacramento St. (297.0)BSkyA73-59W100%0.0
3-6Montana (97.3)BSkyA60-81L0%0.0