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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Northern Arizona

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:329.4
Current RPI:333
Expected SOS:270
Current Record:3-19
Expected Record:4-23
Current Conf Record:1-11
Expected Conf Record:2-14
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-11
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:299
Expected OOC SOS:248


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
8-1929.63%298.00.01%
7-2025.93%308.20.69%
6-2122.22%317.28.81%
5-2218.52%326.232.85%
4-2314.81%332.341.99%
3-2411.11%336.215.64%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Louisiana Lafayette (158.5)SBN83-66L0%0.0
11-12San Francisco (154.1)WCCA69-50L0%0.0
11-13North Dakota St. (121.0)SumN58-70L0%0.0
11-26Loyola Marymount (110.2)WCCA81-61L0%0.0
11-30Brigham Young (41.8)WCCN52-87L0%0.0
12-3Arizona (75.5)P12A53-39L0%0.0
12-7Pepperdine (252.4)WCCH40-49L0%0.0
12-10Cal St. Bakersfield (215.3)indH80-67W100%0.0
12-17Arizona St. (245.1)P12A68-69W100%0.0
12-20Sam Houston St. (285.0)SlndA73-49L0%0.0
12-29Sacramento St. (305.3)BSkyH73-64W100%0.0
12-31Northern Colorado (253.4)BSkyA80-64L0%0.0
1-5Portland St. (206.9)BSkyA82-62L0%0.0
1-7Eastern Washington (207.3)BSkyA76-59L0%0.0
1-12Montana (96.9)BSkyH53-78L0%0.0
1-14Montana St. (262.2)BSkyH72-74L0%0.0
1-19Weber St. (78.7)BSkyA81-67L0%0.0
1-21Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyA78-62L0%0.0
1-28Sacramento St. (305.3)BSkyA77-43L0%0.0
1-30Northern Colorado (253.4)BSkyH62-64L0%0.0
2-2Eastern Washington (207.3)BSkyH68-74L0%0.0
2-4Portland St. (206.9)BSkyH65-76L0%0.0
2-9Weber St. (78.7)BSkyH0-010%-13.9
2-11Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyH0-044%-1.6
2-18UC Davis (342.3)BWH0-062%3.2
2-23Montana (96.9)BSkyA0-02%-22.8
2-27Montana St. (262.2)BSkyA0-020%-9.1