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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

North Texas

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:198.8
Current RPI:200
Expected SOS:236
Current Record:10-10
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:4.25%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:237
Expected OOC SOS:230


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
19-1065.52%101.80.04%
18-1064.29%122.00.01%
18-1162.07%115.20.71%
17-1160.71%144.40.31%
18-1260.00%109.00.01%
16-1159.26%166.50.46%
17-1258.62%130.32.12%
16-1257.14%160.52.52%
17-1356.67%128.30.39%
15-1255.56%183.63.41%
16-1355.17%145.62.97%
15-1353.57%171.38.61%
16-1453.33%147.91.44%
14-1351.85%199.012.11%
15-1451.72%171.74.15%
15-1550.00%168.41.70%
14-1450.00%192.412.97%
14-1548.28%197.53.53%
13-1448.15%217.416.12%
14-1646.67%188.40.41%
13-1546.43%216.49.72%
13-1644.83%214.30.83%
12-1544.44%238.99.24%
13-1743.33%210.00.01%
12-1642.86%231.52.87%
11-1542.31%249.40.09%
12-1741.38%220.50.06%
11-1640.74%257.52.74%
11-1739.29%247.10.17%
10-1638.46%263.80.13%
10-1737.04%272.20.14%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Texas Tech (244.3)B12A69-64L0%0.0
11-22Texas Arlington (85.3)SlndA97-64L0%0.0
11-27Mississippi St. (48.3)SECA82-59L0%0.0
11-29Texas (59.0)B12A73-57L0%0.0
12-3Columbia (157.4)IvyN72-57L0%0.0
12-4Loyola Marymount (110.2)WCCA63-76W100%0.0
12-10Sam Houston St. (285.0)SlndH53-50W100%0.0
12-18Jackson St. (312.2)SWACH69-55W100%0.0
12-20Grambling (341.9)SWACH82-40W100%0.0
12-22Louisiana St. (91.6)SECH58-67L0%0.0
12-29Arkansas Little Rock (187.9)SBH66-69L0%0.0
12-31Troy (271.6)SBH87-65W100%0.0
1-5South Alabama (196.9)SBA73-78W100%0.0
1-7Arkansas St. (229.8)SBA75-72L0%0.0
1-12Western Kentucky (240.9)SBH84-67W100%0.0
1-14Louisiana Monroe (324.7)SBA55-68W100%0.0
1-21Denver (82.1)SBH75-74W100%0.0
1-25Louisiana Lafayette (158.5)SBA64-62L0%0.0
1-28Arkansas St. (229.8)SBH76-64W100%0.0
2-2Middle Tennessee (40.8)SBH66-68L0%0.0
2-9Florida International (213.6)SBA0-046%-1.1
2-11Florida Atlantic (177.8)SBA0-038%-3.2
2-16Louisiana Monroe (324.7)SBH0-092%15.1
2-18Louisiana Lafayette (158.5)SBH0-062%3.4
2-23Arkansas Little Rock (187.9)SBA0-044%-1.6
2-26Denver (82.1)SBA0-018%-10.1