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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

North Florida

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:177.6
Current RPI:163
Expected SOS:177
Current Record:12-13
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:1.58%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:122
Expected OOC SOS:82


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
20-1360.61%92.00.02%
19-1457.58%104.00.39%
18-1456.25%127.90.64%
17-1454.84%150.60.92%
18-1554.55%119.11.04%
17-1553.12%141.64.65%
16-1551.61%164.26.24%
17-1651.52%133.12.22%
16-1650.00%156.012.72%
16-1748.48%149.32.36%
15-1648.39%181.017.69%
15-1746.88%172.411.96%
15-1845.45%164.00.99%
14-1745.16%195.922.16%
14-1843.75%189.32.87%
14-1942.42%177.90.09%
13-1841.94%208.811.85%
13-1940.62%204.90.14%
12-1840.00%222.00.02%
12-1938.71%222.91.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Alabama (29.7)SECA64-44L0%0.0
11-14Savannah St. (193.5)MEACH62-57W100%0.0
11-17Florida (17.2)SECA91-55L0%0.0
11-19Miami FL (57.7)ACCA75-62L0%0.0
11-21Ohio St. (4.1)B10A85-50L0%0.0
11-23Wright St. (220.5)HorzH69-52W100%0.0
11-25Jackson St. (312.2)SWACH69-60W100%0.0
11-29Bethune Cookman (257.8)MEACH61-56W100%0.0
12-3Jacksonville (282.9)ASunH80-58W100%0.0
12-11Kansas St. (49.5)B12A79-68L0%0.0
12-17Auburn (159.9)SECA84-71L0%0.0
12-19Virginia Tech (95.1)ACCA84-55L0%0.0
12-21Florida A&M (323.5)MEACA63-90W100%0.0
1-2Belmont (53.1)ASunH53-83L0%0.0
1-4Lipscomb (209.3)ASunH82-61W100%0.0
1-7Florida Gulf Coast (212.7)ASunA81-88W100%0.0
1-9Stetson (263.0)ASunA68-64L0%0.0
1-14South Carolina Upstate (156.4)ASunH62-69L0%0.0
1-16East Tennessee St. (192.3)ASunH63-64L0%0.0
1-21Mercer (103.9)ASunA69-58L0%0.0
1-23Kennesaw St. (320.2)ASunA68-76W100%0.0
1-28Lipscomb (209.3)ASunA59-71W100%0.0
1-30Belmont (53.1)ASunA83-69L0%0.0
2-4Stetson (263.0)ASunH99-96W100%0.0
2-6Florida Gulf Coast (212.7)ASunH68-62W100%0.0
2-11East Tennessee St. (192.3)ASunA0-031%-5.5
2-13South Carolina Upstate (156.4)ASunA0-033%-4.9
2-18Kennesaw St. (320.2)ASunH0-091%14.4
2-20Mercer (103.9)ASunH0-034%-4.6
2-24Jacksonville (282.9)ASunA0-054%1.2