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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

North Dakota

Conference:GWC
Expected RPI:250.8
Current RPI:284
Expected SOS:311
Current Record:6-12
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:2-3
Expected Conf Record:7-5
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-10
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:5-10
Expected OOC RPI:232
Expected OOC SOS:178


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
16-1257.14%138.50.02%
15-1255.56%165.00.81%
15-1353.57%168.40.63%
14-1351.85%189.44.36%
14-1450.00%193.43.69%
13-1350.00%224.70.73%
13-1448.15%216.09.73%
13-1546.43%217.58.19%
12-1446.15%245.84.25%
12-1544.44%242.211.24%
12-1642.86%241.67.87%
11-1542.31%268.18.16%
11-1640.74%266.410.87%
11-1739.29%265.13.61%
10-1638.46%285.98.91%
10-1737.04%284.06.53%
10-1835.71%284.60.70%
9-1734.62%300.25.06%
9-1833.33%297.91.83%
9-1932.14%302.60.14%
8-1830.77%312.21.85%
8-1929.63%310.70.47%
8-2028.57%318.00.01%
7-1926.92%325.20.28%
7-2025.93%325.70.03%
6-2023.08%330.50.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyH63-47W100%0.0
11-19Bradley (253.2)MVCA78-69L0%0.0
11-23Montana (96.9)BSkyH88-81W100%0.0
11-26Western Illinois (180.2)SumH62-65L0%0.0
12-3Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyA76-63L0%0.0
12-7Missouri Kansas City (244.9)SumA78-75L0%0.0
12-10South Dakota St. (49.5)SumA92-54L0%0.0
12-15South Dakota St. (49.5)SumH89-70W100%0.0
12-18Sacramento St. (305.3)BSkyA75-64L0%0.0
12-22Western Illinois (180.2)SumA68-46L0%0.0
12-31Kansas (9.2)B12A84-58L0%0.0
1-7New Mexico (26.0)MWCA85-57L0%0.0
1-17North Dakota St. (121.0)SumH59-54W100%0.0
1-21Utah Valley (206.6)GWCA72-64L0%0.0
1-26NJ Inst of Technology (290.3)GWCH80-63W100%0.0
1-28Chicago St. (335.1)GWCH71-61W100%0.0
2-2Houston Baptist (311.7)GWCA69-62L0%0.0
2-4Texas Pan American (304.9)GWCA70-58L0%0.0
2-9Chicago St. (335.1)GWCA0-073%6.5
2-11NJ Inst of Technology (290.3)GWCA0-054%1.1
2-16Louisiana Tech (205.7)WACA0-027%-6.6
2-18Longwood (319.3)indA0-069%5.3
2-25Houston Baptist (311.7)GWCH0-080%9.3
2-27Texas Pan American (304.9)GWCH0-076%7.8
3-3Utah Valley (206.6)GWCH0-053%0.8