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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

North Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:121.0
Current RPI:132
Expected SOS:214
Current Record:13-8
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:8-5
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:13.31%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:126
Expected OOC SOS:283


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
22-873.33%58.11.08%
21-970.00%71.75.17%
20-968.97%99.42.93%
19-967.86%119.72.02%
20-1066.67%86.89.67%
19-1065.52%110.913.91%
18-1064.29%132.78.06%
19-1163.33%102.58.22%
18-1162.07%124.716.26%
17-1160.71%147.110.11%
18-1260.00%116.73.87%
17-1258.62%138.87.88%
16-1257.14%164.95.67%
17-1356.67%133.10.89%
16-1355.17%155.82.15%
15-1353.57%182.71.32%
16-1453.33%146.00.13%
15-1451.72%173.40.25%
14-1450.00%201.00.36%
14-1548.28%195.00.01%
13-1546.43%214.30.03%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11San Francisco (154.1)WCCA65-73W100%0.0
11-12Louisiana Lafayette (158.5)SBN78-58W100%0.0
11-13Northern Arizona (329.4)BSkyN58-70W100%0.0
11-16Wisconsin Green Bay (187.9)HorzH65-61W100%0.0
11-26Fresno St. (181.1)WACH78-65W100%0.0
12-1Western Illinois (180.2)SumA55-51L0%0.0
12-3IUPUI (246.0)SumA79-84W100%0.0
12-10Arizona St. (245.1)P12A60-57L0%0.0
12-22Minnesota (71.7)B10A63-59L0%0.0
12-28Oakland (140.4)SumH96-69W100%0.0
12-30IUPU Fort Wayne (271.7)SumH84-68W100%0.0
1-5Oral Roberts (40.9)SumA89-80L0%0.0
1-7Southern Utah (234.6)SumA69-72W100%0.0
1-12Missouri Kansas City (244.9)SumH55-54W100%0.0
1-14South Dakota (283.1)SumH82-59W100%0.0
1-17North Dakota (250.8)GWCA59-54L0%0.0
1-21South Dakota St. (49.5)SumH88-91L0%0.0
1-26IUPU Fort Wayne (271.7)SumA75-66L0%0.0
1-28Oakland (140.4)SumA75-78W100%0.0
2-2Southern Utah (234.6)SumH85-64W100%0.0
2-4Oral Roberts (40.9)SumH76-85L0%0.0
2-9Missouri Kansas City (244.9)SumA0-073%6.8
2-11South Dakota (283.1)SumA0-078%8.3
2-15South Dakota St. (49.5)SumA0-025%-7.3
2-18Western Michigan (182.0)MACH0-078%8.4
2-23IUPUI (246.0)SumH0-084%10.9
2-25Western Illinois (180.2)SumH0-077%7.9