live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:5.7
Current RPI:5
Expected SOS:9
Current Record:20-3
Expected Record:28-6
Current Conf Record:7-1
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:37.50%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:13-2
Expected OOC Record:13-2
Expected OOC RPI:5
Expected OOC SOS:23


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
31-391.18%1.22.28%
30-488.24%1.79.95%
29-487.88%3.61.33%
28-487.50%5.51.07%
29-585.29%2.417.26%
28-584.85%4.95.74%
27-584.38%7.53.31%
28-682.35%3.415.89%
27-681.82%6.78.70%
26-681.25%10.04.53%
28-780.00%2.30.16%
27-779.41%4.98.73%
26-778.79%9.06.78%
25-778.12%13.64.25%
27-877.14%4.20.35%
26-876.47%7.32.82%
25-875.76%12.32.99%
24-875.00%17.91.80%
26-974.29%7.70.22%
25-973.53%12.10.60%
24-972.73%17.40.70%
23-971.88%25.20.30%
25-1071.43%13.20.05%
24-1070.59%17.00.11%
23-1069.70%26.60.05%
22-1068.75%30.00.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Michigan St. (10.3)B10N67-55W100%0.0
11-13NC Asheville (119.6)BSthA75-91W100%0.0
11-20Mississippi Valley St. (144.1)SWACH101-75W100%0.0
11-22Tennessee St. (152.3)OVCH102-69W100%0.0
11-25South Carolina (177.4)SECN87-62W100%0.0
11-26Nevada Las Vegas (14.5)MWCA90-80L0%0.0
11-30Wisconsin (22.7)B10H60-57W100%0.0
12-3Kentucky (4.3)SECA73-72L0%0.0
12-6Evansville (160.7)MVCH97-48W100%0.0
12-10Long Beach St. (34.1)BWH84-78W100%0.0
12-17Appalachian St. (245.3)SCH97-82W100%0.0
12-19Nicholls St. (315.8)SlndH99-49W100%0.0
12-21Texas (61.2)B12H82-63W100%0.0
12-29Elon (223.0)SCH100-62W100%0.0
1-1Monmouth (275.7)NECH102-65W100%0.0
1-7Boston College (253.7)ACCH83-60W100%0.0
1-10Miami FL (68.7)ACCH73-56W100%0.0
1-14Florida St. (24.3)ACCA90-57L0%0.0
1-19Virginia Tech (95.2)ACCA68-82W100%0.0
1-26North Carolina St. (66.6)ACCH74-55W100%0.0
1-29Georgia Tech (174.6)ACCH93-81W100%0.0
1-31Wake Forest (180.8)ACCA53-68W100%0.0
2-4Maryland (122.6)ACCA74-83W100%0.0
2-8Duke (6.1)ACCH0-067%4.8
2-11Virginia (40.5)ACCH0-078%8.5
2-15Miami FL (68.7)ACCA0-073%6.7
2-18Clemson (149.7)ACCH0-093%15.8
2-21North Carolina St. (66.6)ACCA0-071%6.1
2-25Virginia (40.5)ACCA0-056%1.7
2-29Maryland (122.6)ACCH0-097%19.8
3-3Duke (6.1)ACCA0-043%-1.9