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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

North Carolina A&T

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:269.1
Current RPI:272
Expected SOS:281
Current Record:7-15
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:1.58%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:268
Expected OOC SOS:67


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
16-1650.00%168.00.07%
15-1648.39%188.00.06%
15-1746.88%191.00.58%
14-1646.67%214.20.17%
14-1745.16%215.40.79%
13-1644.83%230.90.26%
14-1843.75%207.81.23%
13-1743.33%235.31.97%
13-1841.94%231.72.72%
12-1741.38%251.51.96%
13-1940.62%224.71.57%
12-1840.00%249.27.34%
12-1938.71%246.23.26%
11-1837.93%266.78.17%
12-2037.50%242.21.02%
11-1936.67%262.913.20%
11-2035.48%261.62.14%
10-1934.48%279.816.85%
11-2134.38%259.90.44%
10-2033.33%275.410.76%
10-2132.26%274.90.75%
10-2231.25%273.00.04%
9-2031.03%290.614.04%
9-2130.00%287.83.81%
9-2229.03%286.10.11%
8-2127.59%299.75.61%
8-2226.67%297.80.40%
7-2224.14%308.20.67%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Creighton (24.5)MVCA97-65L0%0.0
11-14Iowa (149.1)B10A95-79L0%0.0
11-17Campbell (155.0)BSthA94-66L0%0.0
11-19Chicago St. (335.1)GWCH87-70W100%0.0
11-28NC Greensboro (257.1)SCH87-65W100%0.0
12-3North Carolina Central (212.0)MEACA65-46L0%0.0
12-10Evansville (149.4)MVCA86-65L0%0.0
12-13Central Florida (77.0)CUSAA77-65L0%0.0
12-15St. Mary's (16.6)WCCA84-45L0%0.0
12-18Hawaii (185.9)WACN65-57L0%0.0
12-21Akron (44.8)MACA79-52L0%0.0
12-23Ohio (61.7)MACA82-66L0%0.0
12-28Houston (235.4)CUSAA71-67L0%0.0
1-7Bethune Cookman (257.8)MEACH56-59L0%0.0
1-9Florida A&M (323.5)MEACH85-82W100%0.0
1-14Howard (300.1)MEACA65-70W100%0.0
1-21Morgan St. (267.3)MEACA61-62W100%0.0
1-23Coppin St. (202.7)MEACA92-93W100%0.0
1-28Maryland Eastern Shore (319.8)MEACH91-66W100%0.0
1-30Delaware St. (264.8)MEACH41-56L0%0.0
2-4Bethune Cookman (257.8)MEACA92-79L0%0.0
2-6Florida A&M (323.5)MEACA87-77L0%0.0
2-11South Carolina St. (335.7)MEACH0-083%10.4
2-13Savannah St. (193.5)MEACH0-038%-3.4
2-18North Carolina Central (212.0)MEACH0-040%-2.9
2-25South Carolina St. (335.7)MEACA0-064%3.8
2-27Savannah St. (193.5)MEACA0-018%-9.9
3-1Norfolk St. (123.5)MEACH0-034%-4.6