live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Norfolk St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:123.5
Current RPI:125
Expected SOS:293
Current Record:16-7
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:9-2
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:28.07%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-4
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:75
Expected OOC SOS:103


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
25-778.12%82.34.18%
24-875.00%94.012.42%
23-874.19%115.83.94%
22-873.33%127.83.61%
24-972.73%96.20.13%
23-971.88%105.815.82%
22-970.97%125.99.74%
21-970.00%138.69.26%
23-1069.70%105.21.05%
22-1068.75%118.78.98%
21-1067.74%136.98.48%
22-1166.67%120.61.18%
20-1066.67%151.08.24%
21-1165.62%135.22.84%
20-1164.52%151.33.97%
21-1263.64%136.40.46%
19-1163.33%165.63.29%
20-1262.50%153.20.83%
19-1261.29%169.40.74%
20-1360.61%151.00.03%
18-1260.00%182.70.52%
19-1359.38%170.50.06%
18-1358.06%184.60.11%
19-1457.58%158.00.01%
17-1356.67%199.40.10%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Norfolk St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Marquette (17.6)BEA99-68L0%0.0
11-18Drexel (70.1)CAAN56-61W100%0.0
11-20Texas Christian (133.2)MWCN53-66W100%0.0
11-21Marquette (17.6)BEN59-57L0%0.0
11-27Eastern Kentucky (206.1)OVCH70-63W100%0.0
12-3Savannah St. (193.5)MEACH60-58W100%0.0
12-5South Carolina St. (335.7)MEACH82-67W100%0.0
12-11Virginia Tech (95.1)ACCA73-60L0%0.0
12-14Long Island (116.2)NECH73-62W100%0.0
12-18Illinois St. (109.7)MVCA68-36L0%0.0
12-20Toledo (273.3)MACA70-72W100%0.0
12-23St. Francis NY (187.8)NECA74-84W100%0.0
1-1Navy (316.2)PatA65-71W100%0.0
1-7Maryland Eastern Shore (319.8)MEACH78-72W100%0.0
1-9Howard (300.1)MEACH68-48W100%0.0
1-14Morgan St. (267.3)MEACA89-90W100%0.0
1-16Coppin St. (202.7)MEACA66-74W100%0.0
1-21Hampton (305.5)MEACA75-80W100%0.0
1-24Morehead St. (185.5)OVCH69-75L0%0.0
1-28Morgan St. (267.3)MEACH76-59W100%0.0
1-30Coppin St. (202.7)MEACH82-87L0%0.0
2-4Delaware St. (264.8)MEACA67-50L0%0.0
2-6Maryland Eastern Shore (319.8)MEACA60-72W100%0.0
2-11Hampton (305.5)MEACA0-064%4.0
2-15Delaware St. (264.8)MEACH0-079%8.8
2-20Longwood (319.3)indH0-094%17.4
2-25Bethune Cookman (257.8)MEACA0-059%2.4
2-27Florida A&M (323.5)MEACA0-079%8.8
3-1North Carolina A&T (269.1)MEACA0-066%4.6