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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Nicholls St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:315.0
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:299
Current Record:5-15
Expected Record:6-21
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.01%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:298
Expected OOC SOS:257


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
11-1739.29%259.00.02%
11-1837.93%259.00.01%
11-1936.67%250.00.01%
10-1835.71%281.00.06%
10-1934.48%279.50.02%
9-1833.33%290.90.14%
9-1932.14%290.61.49%
9-2031.03%289.90.21%
9-2130.00%277.70.03%
8-1929.63%302.13.95%
8-2028.57%299.87.00%
8-2127.59%298.50.25%
7-2025.93%310.821.81%
7-2125.00%308.78.99%
7-2224.14%303.00.01%
6-2122.22%319.338.04%
6-2221.43%316.00.52%
5-2218.52%326.417.43%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nicholls St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Louisiana St. (91.6)SECA96-74L0%0.0
11-15Tulane (171.0)CUSAA96-50L0%0.0
11-18Cal St. Fullerton (159.2)BWN63-73L0%0.0
11-19Houston Baptist (311.7)GWCN70-80W100%0.0
11-20Louisiana Lafayette (158.5)SBA84-57L0%0.0
11-25Auburn (159.9)SECA78-57L0%0.0
11-28Louisiana Monroe (324.7)SBH65-86L0%0.0
12-12Louisiana Monroe (324.7)SBA70-82W100%0.0
12-13Texas (59.0)B12A93-40L0%0.0
12-19North Carolina (5.2)ACCA99-49L0%0.0
1-4Texas San Antonio (159.9)SlndA91-50L0%0.0
1-7Texas Arlington (85.3)SlndA85-55L0%0.0
1-11Northwestern St. (179.3)SlndH79-80L0%0.0
1-14Sam Houston St. (285.0)SlndH65-75L0%0.0
1-18Central Arkansas (299.9)SlndA99-76L0%0.0
1-21Southeastern Louisiana (326.4)SlndA53-55W100%0.0
1-25McNeese St. (207.5)SlndH56-60L0%0.0
1-28Lamar (91.1)SlndA80-56L0%0.0
2-1Texas A&M Corpus Chris (316.1)SlndH65-61W100%0.0
2-4Texas St. (317.6)SlndH96-75W100%0.0
2-8Stephen F. Austin (246.7)SlndA0-06%-17.4
2-11Lamar (91.1)SlndH0-05%-17.9
2-18IUPUI (246.0)SumH0-019%-9.5
2-22Central Arkansas (299.9)SlndH0-046%-1.2
2-25McNeese St. (207.5)SlndA0-010%-14.2
2-29Northwestern St. (179.3)SlndA0-07%-16.2
3-3Southeastern Louisiana (326.4)SlndH0-049%-0.3