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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Nevada Las Vegas

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:14.8
Current RPI:12
Expected SOS:36
Current Record:19-4
Expected Record:27-6
Current Conf Record:5-2
Expected Conf Record:13-4
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:55.23%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:14-2
Expected OOC Record:14-2
Expected OOC RPI:18
Expected OOC SOS:113


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
29-487.88%6.62.75%
28-487.50%7.22.55%
31-586.11%5.10.16%
30-585.71%8.00.02%
29-585.29%9.90.09%
28-584.85%9.16.93%
27-584.38%10.15.83%
26-583.87%13.23.61%
30-683.33%6.47.08%
29-682.86%11.12.55%
28-682.35%12.43.72%
27-681.82%13.210.41%
26-681.25%14.65.34%
25-680.65%17.06.13%
29-780.56%8.86.67%
28-780.00%14.52.44%
27-779.41%16.74.90%
26-778.79%18.39.42%
25-778.12%21.34.07%
28-877.78%11.70.95%
24-777.42%23.31.79%
27-877.14%19.50.31%
26-876.47%22.61.34%
25-875.76%24.84.61%
24-875.00%27.93.19%
23-874.19%32.60.96%
25-973.53%30.60.10%
24-972.73%30.60.64%
23-971.88%35.80.85%
22-970.97%40.80.45%
23-1069.70%43.50.02%
22-1068.75%45.20.06%
21-1067.74%52.50.04%
22-1166.67%43.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada Las Vegas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Nevada (62.8)WACH71-67W100%0.0
11-17Canisius (323.1)MAACH95-70W100%0.0
11-20Morgan St. (267.3)MEACH92-55W100%0.0
11-22Cal Poly (182.0)BWH75-52W100%0.0
11-25Southern California (237.1)P12H66-55W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina (5.2)ACCH90-80W100%0.0
11-30UC Santa Barbara (137.9)BWA88-94W100%0.0
12-4Wichita St. (15.9)MVCA89-70L0%0.0
12-10Wisconsin (23.0)B10A62-51L0%0.0
12-14Texas El Paso (180.1)CUSAH65-54W100%0.0
12-17Illinois (56.7)B10N48-64W100%0.0
12-19Louisiana Monroe (324.7)SBH81-63W100%0.0
12-23California (40.2)P12H85-68W100%0.0
12-28Central Arkansas (299.9)SlndH124-75W100%0.0
12-31Hawaii (185.9)WACA69-74W100%0.0
1-5Cal St. Bakersfield (215.3)indA57-89W100%0.0
1-14San Diego St. (30.4)MWCA69-67L0%0.0
1-18Texas Christian (133.2)MWCH101-78W100%0.0
1-21New Mexico (26.0)MWCH80-63W100%0.0
1-25Boise St. (185.1)MWCA72-77W100%0.0
1-28Air Force (181.8)MWCA63-65W100%0.0
2-1Colorado St. (42.4)MWCH82-63W100%0.0
2-4Wyoming (58.0)MWCA68-66L0%0.0
2-11San Diego St. (30.4)MWCH0-081%9.6
2-14Texas Christian (133.2)MWCA0-085%11.2
2-18New Mexico (26.0)MWCA0-038%-3.4
2-22Boise St. (185.1)MWCH0-092%15.3
2-25Air Force (181.8)MWCH0-096%18.9
2-29Colorado St. (42.4)MWCA0-071%6.0
3-3Wyoming (58.0)MWCH0-081%9.4