Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  NC Wilmington   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2010.

NC Wilmington

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:237.0
Current RPI:236
Expected SOS:144
Current Record:9-22
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:213
Expected OOC SOS:110


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
9-2229.03%237.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NC Wilmington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Appalachian St. (100.4)SCA68-79L0%0.0
11-15George Washington (149.3)A10H71-76L0%0.0
11-19Penn St. (194.0)B10N80-69W100%0.0
11-20Miami FL (95.7)ACCN60-67L0%0.0
11-22South Florida (70.5)BEN66-74L0%0.0
11-24Virginia Military Inst (309.9)BSthH115-95W100%0.0
11-29Elon (269.0)SCA86-56W100%0.0
12-5George Mason (158.1)CAAH52-57L0%0.0
12-14Campbell (183.2)ASunH79-59W100%0.0
12-16Wake Forest (40.6)ACCH69-80L0%0.0
12-28Richmond (28.0)A10A64-66L0%0.0
1-2Virginia Commonwealth (65.0)CAAA57-91L0%0.0
1-4William & Mary (57.0)CAAA62-61W100%0.0
1-6Georgia St. (248.0)CAAH57-50W100%0.0
1-9George Mason (158.1)CAAA46-59L0%0.0
1-13Old Dominion (26.9)CAAH52-70L0%0.0
1-16Northeastern (74.0)CAAA56-79L0%0.0
1-18Virginia (126.0)ACCA67-69L0%0.0
1-20Georgia St. (248.0)CAAA74-79L0%0.0
1-23James Madison (241.9)CAAH67-64W100%0.0
1-27Hofstra (145.0)CAAA54-93L0%0.0
1-30Towson (264.6)CAAH53-58L0%0.0
2-3Virginia Commonwealth (65.0)CAAH60-73L0%0.0
2-8Delaware (238.8)CAAA62-69L0%0.0
2-11Towson (264.6)CAAA80-72W100%0.0
2-13Hofstra (145.0)CAAH70-87L0%0.0
2-16Northeastern (74.0)CAAH56-65L0%0.0
2-20Radford (169.2)BSthA68-76L0%0.0
2-24Drexel (147.2)CAAA75-69W100%0.0
2-27William & Mary (57.0)CAAH51-62L0%0.0
3-5Towson (264.6)CAAN74-91L0%0.0