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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

NC Wilmington

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:208.3
Current RPI:213
Expected SOS:133
Current Record:9-14
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:5-8
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.35%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:154
Expected OOC SOS:105


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
17-1651.52%107.00.01%
16-1650.00%130.60.05%
16-1748.48%123.90.07%
15-1648.39%149.50.15%
15-1746.88%142.20.27%
14-1646.67%164.20.12%
15-1845.45%134.30.28%
14-1745.16%161.41.40%
14-1843.75%155.70.96%
13-1743.33%183.71.39%
14-1942.42%152.00.43%
13-1841.94%176.95.52%
13-1940.62%172.01.97%
12-1840.00%198.86.16%
13-2039.39%169.30.56%
12-1938.71%192.112.83%
12-2037.50%189.12.42%
11-1936.67%213.714.24%
12-2136.36%183.20.31%
11-2035.48%208.015.35%
11-2134.38%204.11.15%
10-2033.33%228.117.70%
10-2132.26%221.97.68%
9-2130.00%242.38.97%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NC Wilmington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Maryland (111.0)ACCA71-62L0%0.0
11-19Dayton (83.7)A10A74-49L0%0.0
11-22Marshall (62.5)CUSAH64-69L0%0.0
11-26Davidson (48.8)SCH67-70L0%0.0
11-30Toledo (273.3)MACA75-73L0%0.0
12-3Illinois St. (109.7)MVCA54-63W100%0.0
12-6Liberty (306.4)BSthA68-77W100%0.0
12-17Virginia Commonwealth (69.1)CAAA87-64L0%0.0
12-19Campbell (155.0)BSthH67-65W100%0.0
12-21Wake Forest (182.2)ACCA87-78L0%0.0
12-30Furman (232.7)SCH72-61W100%0.0
1-2Delaware (178.3)CAAH80-75W100%0.0
1-4Northeastern (165.1)CAAA62-70W100%0.0
1-7Hofstra (234.9)CAAH86-80W100%0.0
1-12Georgia St. (110.1)CAAA75-61L0%0.0
1-14Drexel (70.1)CAAH57-79L0%0.0
1-18James Madison (249.9)CAAH61-69L0%0.0
1-21William & Mary (305.0)CAAA66-68W100%0.0
1-23George Mason (90.6)CAAA67-61L0%0.0
1-25Old Dominion (124.0)CAAH48-53L0%0.0
1-28Towson (305.6)CAAA66-61L0%0.0
2-1Georgia St. (110.1)CAAH53-68L0%0.0
2-4William & Mary (305.0)CAAH81-68W100%0.0
2-8Delaware (178.3)CAAA0-028%-6.4
2-11George Mason (90.6)CAAH0-032%-5.0
2-14Old Dominion (124.0)CAAA0-017%-10.3
2-18Manhattan (106.6)MAACA0-016%-10.8
2-22Virginia Commonwealth (69.1)CAAH0-022%-8.6
2-25Hofstra (234.9)CAAA0-033%-4.9