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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Mount St. Mary's

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:290.0
Current RPI:289
Expected SOS:247
Current Record:6-17
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:4-8
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.06%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:287
Expected OOC SOS:182


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
13-1940.62%213.00.02%
12-1840.00%243.00.01%
12-1938.71%230.30.06%
12-2037.50%217.40.13%
11-1936.67%256.00.62%
11-2035.48%241.50.58%
10-1934.48%276.20.61%
11-2134.38%233.00.19%
10-2033.33%270.27.44%
10-2132.26%257.51.01%
9-2031.03%286.212.55%
9-2130.00%281.918.59%
9-2229.03%271.50.33%
8-2127.59%295.432.40%
8-2226.67%292.55.60%
7-2224.14%303.217.17%
7-2323.33%299.20.11%
6-2320.69%311.02.57%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mount St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Marquette (17.6)BEA91-37L0%0.0
11-16Hartford (323.5)AEA50-63W100%0.0
11-19Siena (226.2)MAACH53-65L0%0.0
11-21Minnesota (71.7)B10A85-56L0%0.0
11-27Navy (316.2)PatA64-56L0%0.0
12-1St. Francis NY (187.8)NECH54-64L0%0.0
12-3Long Island (116.2)NECH76-85L0%0.0
12-7Maryland (111.0)ACCA77-74L0%0.0
12-10Loyola MD (78.4)MAACH54-65L0%0.0
12-18Penn St. (172.5)B10A72-43L0%0.0
12-22Savannah St. (193.5)MEACA45-41L0%0.0
12-29American (153.6)PatH49-42W100%0.0
12-31Albany (206.4)AEH64-65L0%0.0
1-5Monmouth (274.9)NECA73-59L0%0.0
1-7Fairleigh Dickinson (324.2)NECA45-66W100%0.0
1-12Central Connecticut (227.1)NECH66-71L0%0.0
1-14Bryant (335.4)NECH64-60W100%0.0
1-19Long Island (116.2)NECA77-62L0%0.0
1-21St. Francis NY (187.8)NECA79-60L0%0.0
1-26Quinnipiac (165.8)NECA69-66L0%0.0
1-28Sacred Heart (237.3)NECA80-81W100%0.0
2-2St. Francis PA (304.6)NECH64-51W100%0.0
2-4Robert Morris (106.1)NECH62-67L0%0.0
2-8Wagner (86.8)NECH0-010%-13.8
2-11Wagner (86.8)NECA0-03%-20.4
2-16Monmouth (274.9)NECH0-070%5.6
2-18Fairleigh Dickinson (324.2)NECH0-075%7.5
2-23Central Connecticut (227.1)NECA0-018%-10.1
2-25Bryant (335.4)NECA0-054%1.0