Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Mount St. Mary's   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2010.

Mount St. Mary's

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:171.3
Current RPI:172
Expected SOS:199
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:193
Expected OOC SOS:114


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
16-1551.61%171.3100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mount St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oklahoma (117.9)B12A71-95L0%0.0
11-18American (294.1)PatA73-62W100%0.0
11-21Loyola MD (216.5)MAACH63-44W100%0.0
11-25Niagara (129.0)MAACH64-74L0%0.0
11-28Navy (264.0)PatA65-56W100%0.0
11-30Georgetown (7.4)BEA62-83L0%0.0
12-3Robert Morris (128.6)NECA57-63L0%0.0
12-5St. Francis PA (286.7)NECA66-73L0%0.0
12-8Old Dominion (26.9)CAAA38-64L0%0.0
12-19Pittsburgh (15.8)BEA48-66L0%0.0
12-22Boston University (136.7)AEA77-86L0%0.0
12-30Vermont (123.5)AEH69-71L0%0.0
1-2Siena (32.4)MAACA76-79L0%0.0
1-7Quinnipiac (146.8)NECA63-64L0%0.0
1-9Sacred Heart (262.1)NECA69-65W100%0.0
1-14St. Francis NY (294.9)NECH58-61L0%0.0
1-16Long Island (240.0)NECH86-67W100%0.0
1-21St. Francis NY (294.9)NECA60-63L0%0.0
1-23Long Island (240.0)NECA58-67L0%0.0
1-28Sacred Heart (262.1)NECH64-52W100%0.0
1-30Quinnipiac (146.8)NECH61-56W100%0.0
2-4Wagner (332.0)NECH69-44W100%0.0
2-6Wagner (332.0)NECA66-50W100%0.0
2-11Monmouth (288.9)NECA69-42W100%0.0
2-13Fairleigh Dickinson (270.7)NECA77-67W100%0.0
2-18Central Connecticut (309.1)NECH85-58W100%0.0
2-20Bryant (345.2)indH74-45W100%0.0
2-25St. Francis PA (286.7)NECH67-51W100%0.0
2-27Robert Morris (128.6)NECH63-61W100%0.0
3-4St. Francis PA (286.7)NECH65-50W100%0.0
3-7Robert Morris (128.6)NECA62-80L0%0.0