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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Morgan St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:267.3
Current RPI:287
Expected SOS:264
Current Record:5-16
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:5.31%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:233
Expected OOC SOS:85


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
16-1650.00%179.40.19%
15-1746.88%192.01.09%
14-1745.16%217.80.56%
14-1843.75%209.92.85%
13-1743.33%235.01.45%
13-1841.94%231.82.36%
12-1741.38%251.20.71%
13-1940.62%226.43.94%
12-1840.00%247.86.09%
12-1938.71%246.43.94%
11-1837.93%264.94.91%
12-2037.50%243.22.68%
11-1936.67%262.112.52%
11-2035.48%262.13.94%
10-1934.48%278.410.86%
11-2134.38%259.21.05%
10-2033.33%276.310.83%
10-2132.26%276.32.36%
10-2231.25%274.10.37%
9-2031.03%289.310.39%
9-2130.00%288.15.67%
9-2229.03%287.90.62%
9-2328.12%283.70.09%
8-2127.59%298.96.46%
8-2226.67%298.21.46%
8-2325.81%299.70.07%
7-2224.14%307.12.00%
7-2323.33%308.00.12%
6-2320.69%316.70.41%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morgan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Xavier (62.4)A10A74-63L0%0.0
11-14Murray St. (26.6)OVCH69-80L0%0.0
11-20Nevada Las Vegas (14.8)MWCA92-55L0%0.0
11-22Southern California (237.1)P12A65-62L0%0.0
11-25Cal Poly (182.0)BWN61-62L0%0.0
11-26Tennessee St. (153.6)OVCN69-64L0%0.0
12-3Ohio (61.7)MACA61-53L0%0.0
12-14MD Baltimore County (335.4)AEA60-73W100%0.0
12-21Loyola Marymount (110.2)WCCH69-45W100%0.0
12-28Saint Joseph's (56.7)A10A81-50L0%0.0
1-3San Francisco (154.1)WCCA87-74L0%0.0
1-7South Carolina St. (335.7)MEACA68-73W100%0.0
1-9Savannah St. (193.5)MEACA57-55L0%0.0
1-14Norfolk St. (123.5)MEACH89-90L0%0.0
1-16Hampton (305.5)MEACH68-56W100%0.0
1-21North Carolina A&T (269.1)MEACH61-62L0%0.0
1-23North Carolina Central (212.0)MEACH71-64W100%0.0
1-28Norfolk St. (123.5)MEACA76-59L0%0.0
1-30Hampton (305.5)MEACA68-63L0%0.0
2-4Coppin St. (202.7)MEACH86-88L0%0.0
2-6Howard (300.1)MEACH46-54L0%0.0
2-11Maryland Eastern Shore (319.8)MEACH0-088%12.6
2-13Delaware St. (264.8)MEACH0-067%4.7
2-18Liberty (306.4)BSthH0-076%7.6
2-22Coppin St. (202.7)MEACA0-031%-5.2
2-25Maryland Eastern Shore (319.8)MEACA0-071%6.0
2-27Delaware St. (264.8)MEACA0-043%-1.8
3-1Florida A&M (323.5)MEACA0-067%4.7