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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Morehead St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:185.5
Current RPI:172
Expected SOS:188
Current Record:10-12
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:6-5
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:2.27%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:99


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
18-1260.00%102.40.05%
18-1358.06%105.80.26%
17-1356.67%125.20.65%
18-1456.25%105.50.12%
16-1355.17%151.40.53%
17-1454.84%120.71.21%
16-1453.33%143.03.70%
17-1553.12%120.40.47%
15-1451.72%170.05.32%
16-1551.61%139.13.20%
16-1650.00%138.41.33%
15-1550.00%162.79.69%
15-1648.39%161.44.63%
14-1548.28%187.613.70%
15-1746.88%156.51.18%
14-1646.67%183.212.16%
14-1745.16%181.53.35%
13-1644.83%205.917.18%
14-1843.75%177.40.17%
13-1743.33%205.15.75%
12-1642.86%210.00.29%
13-1841.94%195.70.85%
12-1741.38%221.810.03%
12-1840.00%220.11.01%
11-1739.29%227.81.05%
12-1938.71%220.00.02%
11-1837.93%237.01.75%
11-1936.67%242.00.02%
10-1835.71%241.40.28%
10-1934.48%249.80.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Carolina St. (64.3)ACCA91-61L0%0.0
11-15College of Charleston (122.2)SCA72-57L0%0.0
11-22West Virginia (33.4)BEN83-48L0%0.0
11-26Princeton (123.2)IvyN68-56W100%0.0
11-27Bucknell (80.9)PatA54-50L0%0.0
12-1Kent St. (82.5)MACA83-63L0%0.0
12-7Illinois St. (109.7)MVCH73-78L0%0.0
12-10South Dakota (283.1)SumH56-57L0%0.0
12-19Binghamton (343.4)AEA45-64W100%0.0
12-23Ball St. (218.9)MACH62-54W100%0.0
12-28Southeast Missouri St. (236.6)OVCA67-51L0%0.0
12-31Austin Peay (197.8)OVCH68-64W100%0.0
1-5Jacksonville St. (247.7)OVCA55-63W100%0.0
1-7Tennessee Tech (131.7)OVCA66-55L0%0.0
1-11Tennessee St. (153.6)OVCA77-72L0%0.0
1-14Eastern Kentucky (206.1)OVCH57-54W100%0.0
1-18Murray St. (26.6)OVCH60-66L0%0.0
1-21Tennessee Martin (323.2)OVCH62-56W100%0.0
1-24Norfolk St. (123.5)MEACA69-75W100%0.0
1-28Tennessee Tech (131.7)OVCH56-50W100%0.0
2-2SIU Edwardsville (305.6)OVCA61-53L0%0.0
2-4Eastern Illinois (295.0)OVCA55-56W100%0.0
2-8Jacksonville St. (247.7)OVCH0-064%3.9
2-11Eastern Kentucky (206.1)OVCA0-042%-2.1
2-15Austin Peay (197.8)OVCA0-035%-4.3
2-18Bowling Green (155.4)MACA0-016%-10.8
2-23Eastern Illinois (295.0)OVCH0-078%8.4
2-25SIU Edwardsville (305.6)OVCH0-083%10.4