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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Montana St.

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:262.2
Current RPI:267
Expected SOS:308
Current Record:9-11
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:6-5
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.25%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:286
Expected OOC SOS:308


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
16-1257.14%201.00.01%
15-1255.56%209.00.01%
16-1355.17%175.40.07%
15-1353.57%209.60.17%
14-1351.85%225.80.23%
15-1451.72%198.30.20%
14-1450.00%223.12.06%
14-1548.28%211.10.63%
13-1448.15%243.12.07%
13-1546.43%238.07.35%
12-1446.15%235.00.01%
13-1644.83%221.50.89%
12-1544.44%255.510.58%
12-1642.86%248.612.74%
11-1542.31%259.70.62%
12-1741.38%229.00.60%
11-1640.74%268.324.42%
11-1739.29%256.97.56%
10-1638.46%276.83.86%
11-1837.93%243.30.06%
10-1737.04%280.220.04%
10-1835.71%268.90.58%
9-1734.62%288.13.41%
9-1833.33%290.01.82%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arizona St. (245.1)P12A78-72L0%0.0
11-19Utah (275.1)P12A64-70W100%0.0
11-22Seattle (291.5)indH73-85L0%0.0
11-26Idaho (164.8)WACA76-67L0%0.0
11-28San Jose St. (278.3)WACA70-77W100%0.0
12-3Cal St. Bakersfield (215.3)indH71-67W100%0.0
12-11UC Riverside (257.2)BWH73-75L0%0.0
12-18Pepperdine (252.4)WCCA59-36L0%0.0
12-20New Mexico (26.0)MWCA91-46L0%0.0
12-28Eastern Washington (207.3)BSkyH66-82L0%0.0
12-30Portland St. (206.9)BSkyH86-73W100%0.0
1-5Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyA69-73W100%0.0
1-12Weber St. (78.7)BSkyA63-49L0%0.0
1-14Northern Arizona (329.4)BSkyA72-74W100%0.0
1-19Sacramento St. (305.3)BSkyH72-65W100%0.0
1-21Northern Colorado (253.4)BSkyH84-72W100%0.0
1-26Portland St. (206.9)BSkyA65-70W100%0.0
1-28Eastern Washington (207.3)BSkyA69-52L0%0.0
2-2Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyH86-87L0%0.0
2-4Montana (96.9)BSkyH58-67L0%0.0
2-9Sacramento St. (305.3)BSkyA0-034%-4.4
2-11Northern Colorado (253.4)BSkyA0-028%-6.2
2-15Weber St. (78.7)BSkyH0-023%-8.1
2-18Cal St. Fullerton (159.2)BWA0-013%-12.4
2-25Montana (96.9)BSkyA0-06%-16.9
2-27Northern Arizona (329.4)BSkyH0-080%9.1