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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Miami FL

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:57.7
Current RPI:37
Expected SOS:35
Current Record:14-7
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:3.01%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:65
Expected OOC SOS:93


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
24-875.00%12.10.21%
23-874.19%22.40.20%
22-873.33%33.30.12%
24-972.73%12.30.03%
23-971.88%18.51.11%
22-970.97%29.91.12%
21-970.00%41.91.58%
23-1069.70%18.60.55%
22-1068.75%26.31.88%
21-1067.74%39.35.23%
22-1166.67%26.51.66%
20-1066.67%50.67.32%
21-1165.62%37.54.41%
20-1164.52%51.213.06%
21-1263.64%35.11.88%
19-1163.33%62.29.88%
20-1262.50%48.75.40%
19-1261.29%63.216.48%
20-1360.61%43.31.03%
18-1260.00%76.56.30%
19-1359.38%58.22.76%
18-1358.06%73.78.90%
19-1457.58%54.60.21%
17-1356.67%90.53.89%
18-1456.25%68.60.52%
17-1454.84%84.52.26%
18-1554.55%62.50.04%
16-1453.33%103.21.52%
17-1553.12%85.70.03%
16-1551.61%95.90.22%
15-1550.00%113.50.17%
15-1648.39%112.00.01%
14-1646.67%125.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami FL.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tennessee Tech (131.7)OVCH69-58W100%0.0
11-15Rutgers (147.8)BEH72-57W100%0.0
11-19North Florida (177.6)ASunH75-62W100%0.0
11-22Florida Gulf Coast (212.7)ASunH60-50W100%0.0
11-25Mississippi (79.8)SECA64-61L0%0.0
11-29Purdue (69.2)B10A76-65L0%0.0
12-3Massachusetts (81.2)A10H83-75W100%0.0
12-6Memphis (33.8)CUSAH54-71L0%0.0
12-10West Virginia (33.4)BEA77-66L0%0.0
12-17Florida Atlantic (177.8)SBN93-90W100%0.0
12-22Charlotte (143.4)A10A61-76W100%0.0
12-30Appalachian St. (254.2)SCH84-54W100%0.0
1-2NC Greensboro (257.1)SCH99-89W100%0.0
1-7Virginia (40.7)ACCA52-51L0%0.0
1-10North Carolina (5.2)ACCA73-56L0%0.0
1-18Clemson (165.8)ACCH76-73W100%0.0
1-22North Carolina St. (64.3)ACCH73-78L0%0.0
1-24Georgia Tech (172.1)ACCA49-64W100%0.0
1-29Boston College (250.9)ACCA54-76W100%0.0
2-1Maryland (111.0)ACCH90-86W100%0.0
2-5Duke (8.8)ACCA74-78W100%0.0
2-9Virginia Tech (95.1)ACCH0-062%3.4
2-11Florida St. (25.0)ACCA0-022%-8.5
2-15North Carolina (5.2)ACCH0-029%-6.1
2-18Wake Forest (182.2)ACCH0-090%13.8
2-21Maryland (111.0)ACCA0-062%3.5
2-26Florida St. (25.0)ACCH0-043%-1.9
2-29North Carolina St. (64.3)ACCA0-038%-3.2
3-3Boston College (250.9)ACCH0-095%18.1