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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Long Island

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:116.2
Current RPI:113
Expected SOS:271
Current Record:17-7
Expected Record:23-10
Current Conf Record:11-1
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:14.04%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-2
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:166
Expected OOC SOS:268


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
26-778.79%81.32.33%
25-875.76%92.38.11%
24-875.00%104.35.94%
23-874.19%108.21.53%
24-972.73%102.011.17%
23-971.88%115.316.93%
22-970.97%119.14.63%
23-1069.70%108.69.17%
22-1068.75%126.015.15%
21-1067.74%131.26.36%
22-1166.67%113.94.44%
21-1165.62%136.86.10%
20-1164.52%145.33.88%
21-1263.64%122.51.25%
20-1262.50%145.91.46%
19-1261.29%160.41.11%
20-1360.61%136.50.10%
19-1359.38%153.80.17%
18-1358.06%176.00.12%
18-1456.25%169.50.02%
17-1454.84%183.50.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Hofstra (234.9)CAAA89-71L0%0.0
11-14Old Dominion (124.0)CAAA77-69L0%0.0
11-16Penn St. (172.5)B10A77-68L0%0.0
11-19Radford (335.2)BSthN59-81W100%0.0
11-20Vermont (155.6)AEN80-75W100%0.0
11-28Iona (38.2)MAACA100-84L0%0.0
12-1Wagner (86.8)NECH78-73W100%0.0
12-3Mount St. Mary's (290.0)NECA76-85W100%0.0
12-5Lafayette (210.0)PatA80-82W100%0.0
12-10Columbia (157.4)IvyA63-53L0%0.0
12-14Norfolk St. (123.5)MEACA73-62L0%0.0
12-17St. Peter's (280.4)MAACH82-80W100%0.0
12-20Texas St. (317.6)SlndH100-84W100%0.0
12-30NJ Inst of Technology (290.3)GWCH84-74W100%0.0
1-5Sacred Heart (237.3)NECA81-87W100%0.0
1-7Quinnipiac (165.8)NECA75-79W100%0.0
1-12Fairleigh Dickinson (324.2)NECH82-64W100%0.0
1-14Monmouth (274.9)NECH106-86W100%0.0
1-19Mount St. Mary's (290.0)NECH77-62W100%0.0
1-21Wagner (86.8)NECA66-73W100%0.0
1-26Robert Morris (106.1)NECA75-66L0%0.0
1-28St. Francis PA (304.6)NECA76-97W100%0.0
2-2Bryant (335.4)NECH75-70W100%0.0
2-4Central Connecticut (227.1)NECH95-81W100%0.0
2-8St. Francis NY (187.8)NECA0-050%0.0
2-11St. Francis NY (187.8)NECH0-073%6.6
2-16Sacred Heart (237.3)NECH0-079%8.7
2-18Quinnipiac (165.8)NECH0-066%4.4
2-23Fairleigh Dickinson (324.2)NECA0-084%11.1
2-25Monmouth (274.9)NECA0-080%9.2