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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Jacksonville St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:247.7
Current RPI:252
Expected SOS:224
Current Record:8-15
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:5-7
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.90%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:250
Expected OOC SOS:158


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
17-1553.12%136.00.02%
16-1551.61%145.50.04%
16-1650.00%155.30.25%
15-1648.39%177.30.47%
15-1746.88%172.91.39%
14-1646.67%203.61.15%
14-1745.16%202.03.07%
13-1644.83%225.32.03%
14-1843.75%192.51.24%
13-1743.33%224.55.19%
12-1642.86%232.90.09%
13-1841.94%216.15.88%
12-1741.38%242.010.17%
13-1940.62%209.90.42%
12-1840.00%241.08.85%
11-1739.29%250.23.40%
12-1938.71%230.13.72%
11-1837.93%258.417.78%
12-2037.50%222.70.03%
11-1936.67%257.45.56%
10-1835.71%266.68.62%
11-2035.48%244.50.71%
10-1934.48%272.610.61%
10-2033.33%271.21.14%
10-2132.26%266.50.02%
9-1932.14%279.65.40%
9-2031.03%283.81.88%
9-2130.00%284.50.02%
8-2028.57%289.60.80%
8-2127.59%294.00.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Marshall (62.5)CUSAA58-44L0%0.0
11-15Cincinnati (91.3)BEA73-59L0%0.0
11-19Alabama St. (302.2)SWACH78-65W100%0.0
11-25Northwestern St. (179.3)SlndA66-61L0%0.0
11-27Weber St. (78.7)BSkyN69-61L0%0.0
12-1South Carolina Upstate (156.4)ASunA50-48L0%0.0
12-10Southern (280.2)SWACN50-55W100%0.0
12-11Tulane (171.0)CUSAA59-51L0%0.0
12-17Eastern Kentucky (206.1)OVCH53-59L0%0.0
12-28Arkansas Pine Bluff (322.7)SWACN78-55W100%0.0
12-29Colorado St. (42.4)MWCN79-56L0%0.0
12-31SIU Edwardsville (305.6)OVCA66-61L0%0.0
1-2Southeast Missouri St. (236.6)OVCA74-56L0%0.0
1-5Morehead St. (185.5)OVCH55-63L0%0.0
1-7Tennessee St. (153.6)OVCH72-65W100%0.0
1-12Murray St. (26.6)OVCA66-55L0%0.0
1-14Austin Peay (197.8)OVCA60-57L0%0.0
1-19Tennessee Tech (131.7)OVCA62-63W100%0.0
1-26Eastern Illinois (295.0)OVCH63-45W100%0.0
1-28SIU Edwardsville (305.6)OVCH76-65W100%0.0
1-30South Carolina Upstate (156.4)ASunH77-82L0%0.0
2-2Tennessee Martin (323.2)OVCA74-85W100%0.0
2-4Tennessee Tech (131.7)OVCH68-76L0%0.0
2-8Morehead St. (185.5)OVCA0-036%-3.9
2-14Tennessee St. (153.6)OVCA0-031%-5.5
2-18Presbyterian (251.9)BSthH0-063%3.5
2-23Southeast Missouri St. (236.6)OVCH0-062%3.3
2-25Tennessee Martin (323.2)OVCH0-085%11.2