live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Illinois St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:109.7
Current RPI:116
Expected SOS:130
Current Record:15-9
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:5.61%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:132
Expected OOC SOS:270


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
24-972.73%41.90.22%
23-1069.70%52.61.47%
22-1068.75%74.41.33%
21-1067.74%92.51.30%
22-1166.67%65.54.12%
21-1165.62%86.77.02%
22-1264.71%64.70.07%
20-1164.52%106.07.19%
21-1263.64%78.55.41%
20-1262.50%99.213.51%
21-1361.76%79.40.25%
19-1261.29%118.715.43%
20-1360.61%94.33.31%
19-1359.38%112.610.61%
20-1458.82%94.40.43%
18-1358.06%133.214.17%
19-1457.58%110.61.31%
18-1456.25%129.95.68%
19-1555.88%109.80.12%
17-1454.84%150.64.87%
18-1554.55%128.40.08%
17-1553.12%147.91.32%
18-1652.94%132.00.02%
16-1551.61%170.80.65%
16-1650.00%167.00.06%
15-1648.39%191.20.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Fresno St. (181.1)WACA55-47L0%0.0
11-17SIU Edwardsville (305.6)OVCH68-38W100%0.0
11-19Lipscomb (209.3)ASunH78-70W100%0.0
11-22Rutgers (147.8)BEN70-76W100%0.0
11-23Illinois (56.7)B10N59-63L0%0.0
11-27Bethune Cookman (257.8)MEACH75-51W100%0.0
11-30Chicago St. (335.1)GWCH85-41W100%0.0
12-3NC Wilmington (208.3)CAAH54-63L0%0.0
12-7Morehead St. (185.5)OVCA73-78W100%0.0
12-18Norfolk St. (123.5)MEACH68-36W100%0.0
12-20Arkansas Little Rock (187.9)SBH72-65W100%0.0
12-29Northern Iowa (66.1)MVCH65-61W100%0.0
1-1Southern Illinois (229.9)MVCA86-71L0%0.0
1-4Missouri St. (82.9)MVCA60-68W100%0.0
1-7Evansville (149.4)MVCH75-73W100%0.0
1-10Wichita St. (15.9)MVCA65-62L0%0.0
1-13Creighton (24.5)MVCH78-87L0%0.0
1-15Drake (143.0)MVCA77-60L0%0.0
1-18Indiana St. (137.7)MVCH67-54W100%0.0
1-21Evansville (149.4)MVCA79-71L0%0.0
1-25Missouri St. (82.9)MVCH76-69W100%0.0
1-28Southern Illinois (229.9)MVCH60-40W100%0.0
2-1Creighton (24.5)MVCA102-74L0%0.0
2-4Bradley (253.2)MVCH78-48W100%0.0
2-8Drake (143.0)MVCH0-078%8.3
2-11Northern Iowa (66.1)MVCA0-035%-4.3
2-14Indiana St. (137.7)MVCA0-055%1.4
2-18Oakland (140.4)SumH0-082%9.9
2-22Wichita St. (15.9)MVCH0-032%-5.0
2-25Bradley (253.2)MVCA0-081%9.4