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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

George Mason

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:90.6
Current RPI:105
Expected SOS:199
Current Record:19-6
Expected Record:24-9
Current Conf Record:11-2
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:13.78%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:117
Expected OOC SOS:215


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
28-682.35%36.20.36%
27-779.41%44.12.81%
26-778.79%65.91.16%
25-778.12%80.90.75%
26-876.47%55.67.50%
25-875.76%76.26.16%
24-875.00%92.14.30%
26-974.29%55.60.13%
25-973.53%67.09.83%
24-972.73%87.011.84%
23-971.88%103.19.07%
25-1071.43%66.00.49%
24-1070.59%80.27.00%
23-1069.70%98.810.25%
22-1068.75%114.010.90%
24-1168.57%83.10.54%
23-1167.65%95.82.80%
22-1166.67%112.75.38%
23-1265.71%98.00.20%
21-1165.62%126.55.37%
22-1264.71%110.30.72%
21-1263.64%130.01.50%
22-1362.86%107.30.03%
20-1262.50%141.10.68%
21-1361.76%132.20.06%
20-1360.61%148.20.11%
19-1359.38%161.20.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Mason.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Rhode Island (255.0)A10H92-90W100%0.0
11-14Florida International (213.6)SBN76-79L0%0.0
11-15Monmouth (274.9)NECN71-39W100%0.0
11-19Florida Atlantic (177.8)SBA80-75L0%0.0
11-21Brown (307.6)IvyH74-48W100%0.0
11-22Albany (206.4)AEH66-46W100%0.0
11-30Bucknell (80.9)PatH61-57W100%0.0
12-3Towson (305.6)CAAA53-65W100%0.0
12-6Virginia (40.7)ACCA68-48L0%0.0
12-10Radford (335.2)BSthA61-76W100%0.0
12-21Duquesne (86.2)A10H64-75L0%0.0
12-23Manhattan (106.6)MAACH81-61W100%0.0
12-30College of Charleston (122.2)SCA76-84W100%0.0
1-2William & Mary (305.0)CAAH70-56W100%0.0
1-5Old Dominion (124.0)CAAA54-63W100%0.0
1-7Georgia St. (110.1)CAAH61-58W100%0.0
1-12Drexel (70.1)CAAA60-53L0%0.0
1-14James Madison (249.9)CAAA83-89W100%0.0
1-18Delaware (178.3)CAAH89-63W100%0.0
1-21Towson (305.6)CAAH72-60W100%0.0
1-23NC Wilmington (208.3)CAAH67-61W100%0.0
1-25Hofstra (234.9)CAAA50-55W100%0.0
1-28James Madison (249.9)CAAH89-79W100%0.0
2-1Delaware (178.3)CAAA65-60L0%0.0
2-4Old Dominion (124.0)CAAH54-50W100%0.0
2-8Hofstra (234.9)CAAH0-082%9.9
2-11NC Wilmington (208.3)CAAA0-068%5.0
2-14Virginia Commonwealth (69.1)CAAH0-049%-0.3
2-18Lamar (91.1)SlndH0-062%3.3
2-22Northeastern (165.1)CAAA0-060%2.8
2-25Virginia Commonwealth (69.1)CAAA0-027%-6.8