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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Fresno St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:181.1
Current RPI:192
Expected SOS:151
Current Record:9-14
Expected Record:14-18
Current Conf Record:3-6
Expected Conf Record:6-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:7.81%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:8-8
Expected OOC RPI:177
Expected OOC SOS:223


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
19-1457.58%94.00.24%
18-1554.55%109.61.43%
17-1553.12%131.80.92%
16-1551.61%152.51.36%
17-1651.52%126.14.18%
16-1650.00%147.14.23%
16-1748.48%141.15.42%
15-1648.39%169.67.41%
15-1746.88%164.37.88%
15-1845.45%158.74.50%
14-1745.16%186.416.03%
14-1843.75%181.97.25%
14-1942.42%176.52.10%
13-1841.94%201.517.44%
13-1940.62%199.33.35%
13-2039.39%193.30.67%
12-1938.71%216.210.21%
12-2037.50%214.61.15%
12-2136.36%211.30.16%
11-2035.48%230.93.17%
11-2134.38%229.60.14%
11-2233.33%221.50.02%
10-2132.26%246.00.66%
10-2231.25%244.50.02%
9-2229.03%259.20.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Illinois St. (109.7)MVCH55-47W100%0.0
11-14Stanford (85.8)P12A75-59L0%0.0
11-15Southern Methodist (217.6)CUSAN52-54W100%0.0
11-21Manhattan (106.6)MAACN83-85L0%0.0
11-22Texas San Antonio (159.9)SlndN83-79L0%0.0
11-26North Dakota St. (121.0)SumA78-65L0%0.0
12-3Utah (275.1)P12H82-52W100%0.0
12-7Colorado (78.1)P12A71-64L0%0.0
12-10Oregon (92.4)P12A74-70L0%0.0
12-17Cal Poly (182.0)BWH46-65L0%0.0
12-19Boise St. (185.1)MWCA70-63L0%0.0
12-21Arizona St. (245.1)P12A65-68W100%0.0
12-29Pacific (263.1)BWA47-55W100%0.0
1-2Boise St. (185.1)MWCH72-59W100%0.0
1-5Utah St. (129.7)WACA72-53L0%0.0
1-7Idaho (164.8)WACA63-59L0%0.0
1-12Hawaii (185.9)WACH68-74L0%0.0
1-14San Jose St. (278.3)WACH82-73W100%0.0
1-21Nevada (62.8)WACA74-61L0%0.0
1-26Louisiana Tech (205.7)WACA59-58L0%0.0
1-28New Mexico St. (67.9)WACA60-56L0%0.0
2-2Idaho (164.8)WACH65-55W100%0.0
2-4Utah St. (129.7)WACH60-54W100%0.0
2-9San Jose St. (278.3)WACA0-067%4.8
2-11Hawaii (185.9)WACA0-044%-1.7
2-18Cal St. Northridge (307.7)BWA0-079%8.6
2-23Seattle (291.5)indH0-079%8.9
2-25Nevada (62.8)WACH0-048%-0.5
3-1Louisiana Tech (205.7)WACH0-076%7.8
3-3New Mexico St. (67.9)WACH0-040%-2.6