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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.

Fresno St.

Expected RPI:66.0
Current RPI:66
Expected SOS:129
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:13-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:136
Expected OOC SOS:200


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fresno St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Pepperdine (129.0)WCCH69-66W100%0.0
11-16Lamar (337.0)SlndH80-72W100%0.0
11-19San Francisco (228.0)WCCH78-71W100%0.0
11-22Rice (279.0)CUSAA65-82W100%0.0
11-27Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH80-59W100%0.0
11-30Oregon (2.0)P12A78-73L0%0.0
12-5Cal Poly (236.0)BWA77-65L0%0.0
12-9Arizona (26.0)P12A85-72L0%0.0
12-12Pacific (268.0)WCCH71-52W100%0.0
12-16Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACH76-68W100%0.0
12-20Evansville (93.0)MVCH77-85L0%0.0
12-30UNLV (147.0)MWCA66-69W100%0.0
1-2New Mexico (141.0)MWCH62-77L0%0.0
1-6Nevada (118.0)MWCH85-63W100%0.0
1-9Boise St. (101.0)MWCA81-70L0%0.0
1-16San Jose St. (301.0)MWCH81-74W100%0.0
1-19San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA73-67L0%0.0
1-23Air Force (226.0)MWCA55-56W100%0.0
1-26Wyoming (187.0)MWCH71-60W100%0.0
2-3San Jose St. (301.0)MWCA65-53L0%0.0
2-6UNLV (147.0)MWCH111-104W100%0.0
2-10San Diego St. (41.0)MWCH58-57W100%0.0
2-13Nevada (118.0)MWCA77-72L0%0.0
2-17Wyoming (187.0)MWCA75-79W100%0.0
2-20Utah St. (151.0)MWCH75-68W100%0.0
2-24Air Force (226.0)MWCH64-63W100%0.0
2-27New Mexico (141.0)MWCA82-92W100%0.0
3-2Colorado St. (181.0)MWCH87-73W100%0.0
3-5Utah St. (151.0)MWCA85-86W100%0.0
3-10UNLV (147.0)MWCA82-95W100%0.0
3-11Colorado St. (181.0)MWCN64-56W100%0.0
3-12San Diego St. (41.0)MWCN63-68W100%0.0