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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:212.7
Current RPI:212
Expected SOS:237
Current Record:11-12
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:1.64%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:238
Expected OOC SOS:234


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
19-1261.29%112.00.01%
18-1358.06%125.10.30%
17-1356.67%157.10.40%
16-1355.17%181.80.55%
17-1454.84%143.91.25%
16-1453.33%172.13.64%
15-1451.72%199.25.05%
16-1551.61%162.62.47%
15-1550.00%189.311.11%
15-1648.39%179.62.89%
14-1548.28%215.215.53%
14-1646.67%206.312.84%
14-1745.16%196.51.24%
13-1644.83%228.821.82%
13-1743.33%221.73.02%
13-1841.94%212.50.18%
12-1741.38%240.814.83%
12-1840.00%236.70.25%
11-1739.29%259.60.05%
11-1837.93%255.42.56%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Texas Christian (133.2)MWCA73-72L0%0.0
11-17Prairie View A&M (278.7)SWACH68-59W100%0.0
11-19Southern Methodist (217.6)CUSAA65-64L0%0.0
11-22Miami FL (57.7)ACCA60-50L0%0.0
11-25Maryland (111.0)ACCA73-67L0%0.0
11-27Loyola MD (78.4)MAACA77-74L0%0.0
12-3East Tennessee St. (192.3)ASunH72-63W100%0.0
12-7Nebraska (136.9)B10A51-50L0%0.0
12-19South Carolina Upstate (156.4)ASunH75-80L0%0.0
12-22Toledo (273.3)MACH83-80W100%0.0
12-29Maine (262.1)AEH84-72W100%0.0
1-2Mercer (103.9)ASunA76-54L0%0.0
1-4Kennesaw St. (320.2)ASunA55-62W100%0.0
1-7North Florida (177.6)ASunH81-88L0%0.0
1-9Jacksonville (282.9)ASunH77-66W100%0.0
1-14Lipscomb (209.3)ASunA80-84W100%0.0
1-16Belmont (53.1)ASunA95-53L0%0.0
1-20Stetson (263.0)ASunA85-92W100%0.0
1-24Longwood (319.3)indH101-58W100%0.0
1-28Kennesaw St. (320.2)ASunH92-74W100%0.0
1-30Mercer (103.9)ASunH66-75L0%0.0
2-4Jacksonville (282.9)ASunA55-65W100%0.0
2-6North Florida (177.6)ASunA68-62L0%0.0
2-11Belmont (53.1)ASunH0-018%-9.9
2-13Lipscomb (209.3)ASunH0-066%4.6
2-17Stetson (263.0)ASunH0-075%7.4
2-23South Carolina Upstate (156.4)ASunA0-034%-4.4
2-25East Tennessee St. (192.3)ASunA0-032%-5.0